The first, partial results of Aghanistan’s elections have been announced today. The early leader is President Hamid Karzai – no surprise there. What is remarkable, however, is that his advantage is very slight. The Guardian reports,

Afghanistan’s independent election commission (IEC) said Karzai had won 41% of the 10% of ballots processed so far, while his former finance minister Abdullah Abdullah had won 39%.

Karzai must win more than half the available votes to triumph outright without the need for a second round of voting between him and Abdullah in October.

That might suggest that the election has not been as grossly corrupt as most observers feared–or at least that Karzai has had the decency to be subtle about his gerrymandering.

It is worth remembering, though, that only ten percent of ballots are in. A final count is likely to be far more favorable for the Afghan president. Votes from the south of the country, where Karzai supposedly enjoys his broadest support, have not yet been tallied.

Despite the promising first counts, almost nobody believes that there has been no foul play, and or that Karzai will not eventually triumph. An interesting first-hand report in today’s LA Times gives a taste of what really happened on election day:

the Taliban made liars of the government officials who promised us a calm day. Throughout the day, shelling could be heard in the city, and there were reports from witnesses that about half a dozen people were killed. You might not know about the violence. The defense and interior ministries ordered Afghan journalists not to report attacks.

But the Taliban’s objective wasn’t to commit dramatic acts of violence. Its objective was to shut down the election, and it succeeded.

The village where I was born lies north of Kandahar, among the rocky hills of the Khakrez District. It has been under effective Taliban control for at least 18 months. My family home is a 15-minute drive from the district center, but no one can go there without explaining his business to the Taliban. In such a situation, who would risk death or amputation to cast a vote he’s pretty sure won’t count anyway?

The situation was similar in another 13 of the 17 districts in Kandahar province. In town, I was willing to take the risk and vote. But those of us who went to the polling places scrubbed our inked fingers with brushes and soap or kerosene as soon as we left. I removed the ink because I wanted to avoid an argument with my mullah, who had exhorted us not to vote; others were afraid of retaliation.

Based on the number of my friends who didn’t vote and conversations around town and at prayers, I’d estimate the turnout in Kandahar city was 20% at best. Province-wide, in all but three districts, 5% would be a generous guess. Total for the province? I’d estimate 10% to 15%.

A low turnout in the Afghan south has been described as unfavorable to President Hamid Karzai, because the bulk of his support is thought to reside there. (As though Pashtuns automatically support Karzai on ethnic grounds.) But such a description ignores the reality of political power in Afghanistan under his regime.

Karzai and his key ministers — including those responsible for security — and several handpicked governors, as well as much of the “independent” election commission staff, had no interest in holding an election, as you in America understand that word. They were concerned, I firmly believe, with ensuring that Karzai remain in power by any means. This is why they pushed so hard to officially open polling places where they knew no one would really be able to vote. They did that because they planned to cheat.

Low turnout in areas assumed to be pro-Karzai is in fact an open door to vote-rigging. All that’s needed is to declare a turnout that sounds plausible to international ears — say 50% — and then fill the boxes up to that number with ballots marked for Karzai.

In Khakrez, for example, only three of 10 polling places on the official list were actually open, according to a friend who traveled there. One was at the home of the district commissioner, a henchman of Karzai, and another was at the same man’s office. Once the polls closed, the Karzai camp was in exclusive possession of the ballot box and voting materials.

We’ll know the result by September 17. For now, though, whatever the early results may say, it still looks as if the western intervention in Afghanistan has served only to introduce a squalid, undemocratic system of disproportional representation–and we are spending billions to prop that system up.