Bad Ideas
So I’m pretty sure that I’m not with Conor on the Shaq-to-Cleveland trade: if the Cavs want to win now (which they’d better, since they might not have LeBron much longer), then it’s probably the best move they could have made. But Vince Carter to the Magic? Really? For Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee? Call me silly, but it seems to me that this could be the Jason Kidd Trade v2.0, with Lee and Alston (who seems dispensable, really) teaming up with Devin Harris to give the Nets a young, dynamic backcourt that almost any other NBA team would kill for, all in exchange for two ex-superstars who are firmly on the downsides of their careers.
Orlando, meanwhile, gets a 31-year-old, shot-hungry guard with a sullen attitude and an offensive game that doesn’t fit very easily with the team that made a Finals run this year. Maybe they figured that this year’s roster didn’t have enough talent to get over the hump, decided that Alston was no longer needed, and determined that Carter would give them a significant short-term boost over Lee. And maybe they’re right. But man: I really like Courtney Lee, and it seems to me that the Magic could end up holding the short end when this one shakes out.
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I like Courtney Lee too, but a starting five consisting of Carter, Turkoglu (assuming they can keep him), Howard, Lewis and Jameer Nelson sounds pretty nasty.
More importantly, the Wizards traded the fifth draft pick away. And predictably enough, Ricky Rubio fell to number five. FML.
Yeah, but what I’ve been hearing is that they’re not going to be able to keep Turkoglu, and by my lights Carter is a huge step down from there.
Maybe the Bulls can let Gordon walk and sign Hedo instead?
They don’t need turgulu. It’s Nelson, Carter, pietrus(shutdown d), Lewis and Howard.
That is gonna be one he’ll of a team.
Chance that Shaq plays the whole season and playoffs without a major injury: 44%.
The only possible way to explain the Carter trade is that the Magic are in “Win Now” mode.
Why are the Magic in “Win Now” mode? They have 4 more years on Lewis’s contract, and 3 years (with a player option for a 4th) on Howard’s and Nelson’s. Plenty of time to develop Lee and give Alston a lot more reps.
Agreed. But is Carter really an upgrade from Lee + Turkoglu? I understand the felt need to change things up, but does that move really make them more likely to win?
Well, it’s my understanding that the Magic would have lost Turkoglu whether they made the Carter trade or not.
So I take it that your question is: Will this year’s Magic with Carter be better than last year’s Magic with Turkoglu, Lee, and Alston.
I think the answer is “maybe,” depending on how Carter plays. If Carter is more or less slotted into Turkoglu’s place (i.e., he gets the touches Turkoglu got last year), then I think it’s an upgrade. But if Carter gets Turkoglu’s touches from last year plus he takes touches away from Nelson and Howard, then this year’s Magic will probably be a bit worse than last year’s.
I think this second scenario is the more likely.
But since the Magic were losing Turkoglu either way, they were going to be worse next year no matter what (probably; I think Turkoglu was highly overrated, but we’ll see next year, I guess).
So then the question is: Would next year’s Turkoglu-less Magic be better with Lee and Alston or with Carter?
For next year alone, I think the answer’s probably that they’d be better with Carter. But I share your enthusiasm for Lee. Give him a few years to develop and suddenly the situation looks a lot different. I think the Magic with Lee and Alston, if given time to develop, would probably have ended up a much better team 2-3 years from now than the Magic with Carter will end up being, especially since it’s likely that Carter’s ball hogging and poor shot selection will delay the development of Howard and Nelson.
So again, I really don’t understand why the Magic decided to play for next year. The core of their team has several years left on their contracts. If I were the Magic’s GM, then Nelson/Alston, Lee, Pietrus, Lewis, Howard/Gortat plus some minor role players and 2 more years experience sounds like a good team (especially since the Celtics have 2 good years left at most and who knows what will happen with LBJ).