It’s (wryly) amusing that on that ObWi thread, the graph is variously being used to argue that (a) the stimulus was poorly-targeted; (b) the stimulus should have been much bigger; (c) the stimulus saved us from an even worse situation.

Sheesh. I mean, (a) is obviously plausible, but (b) is obviously beside the point (it doesn’t matter how much you spend if all of it is spent too late), and (c) is just ridiculous, because we haven’t spent any of the money!

Of course this is the moral hazard with deficit stimulus programs by government – there is no way to discern reality from estimates and projections. The administration can have it both ways: if the economy recovers faster than expected, Keynesianism will be lauded, else if the downturn is worse than expected, the stimulus is preventative. Worst case scenario is a long flatline.