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Weird Election Photo Finishes

Three possible endgames we should all hope don't happen.
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It’s a two-column week for me at The Week — and this one is just for election obsessives.

Right now, it looks like Hillary Clinton is still significantly favored, and if she wins that the Democrats will likely control the Senate as well. But Donald Trump is clearly gaining ground, mostly because undecideds and Gary Johnson voters are coming home to the GOP. So it is possible that this thing will go down to the wire after all.

What then?

Hunter S. Thompson said, “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro” — and if this election doesn’t prove him right then nothing does. Here, then, are three weird photo finish scenarios that are still possible ends to this weirdest of elections.

And then I outline three increasingly unlikely possibilities:

  1. Trump will “win” on Election Day but lose the election because of early voting. In itself, that’s not so weird or even so unlikely — but in my scenario, Trump wins states like Michigan and New Hampshire that currently favor Clinton but don’t have early voting, lending credence to the argument that the electorate “changed its mind” by Election Day.
  2. Trump wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote by a meaningful margin — between 1 and 2 percent. That result is actually likelier than most people realize, because Clinton’s support is “inefficiently” distributed — she’s doing better in large red states like Texas and Georgia than a typical Democratic candidate, but she’s still going to lose these states.
  3. Evan McMullin wins Utah in part because Democrats flock to him to stop Trump, leading to an Electoral College deadlock that throws the election to the GOP-controlled House of Representatives.

The commonality of all the scenarios is that the losing side has real reason to consider the election illegitimate, with all the possibility for further political instability that that implies.

Read the whole thing there. And have a nice five days!

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