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Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Quebec Unveiled

Secularism, Islam and the Canadian Election
Thomas Mulcair rally with ausma malik

Those of you with fewer Canadian stage actors in your Facebook feed may not have been quite as aware as I have been of the volatile state of politics in Canada. For some time, it has been clear that a majority of Canadians wanted to repudiate Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, but could not decide who to vote for, instead. It looked, for a while, like the New Democratic Party, roughly Canada’s version of Britain’s Liberal Democrats, might build on their dramatic gains in 2011 and form the next government. Instead, yesterday Justin Trudeau and the Liberals surged not only to victory but to an outright majority. Those interested in more details, including results for specific ridings, can find all the data they might want at the CBC.

The Liberal resurgence in Atlantic Canada was expected, as were gains in the West and in Ontario, though obviously if the election had been held in late summer those gains would have been less-dramatic. If there was a decisive development in this election, it is the utter collapse of the NDP in Quebec, where not long ago the Liberals had been comprehensively rejected, and where the NDP had captured the overwhelming majority of ridings in 2011.

And the turning point in Quebec appears to have been NDP leader Tom Mulcair’s defense of Muslim women wearing the niqab (a full, face-covering veil) while taking the oath of citizenship. Harper was attempting to use the question as a wedge issue, not just between immigrants and “old stock” Canadians but between different groups of immigrants (Hindu and East Asian immigrants showed signs of being receptive to the pitch). But while the issue clearly damaged Mulcair badly, and may have led to gains for both the Conservatives and the Bloc in Quebec, the primary effect was to induce secular Quebecois to take a second look at the other alternative to the Conservatives.

These voters – liberal, secular, and anxious about the more reactionary forms of Islam – are a relatively poorly-anchored electoral bloc in those Western countries where Islam has become a political issue. In some cases – as with the rise of the late Pym Fortuyn – they may be dislodged from their “traditional” political alignment. In this case, they ricocheted back into a more traditional alignment and away from a new party that got on the “wrong” side of this issue. But regardless, it’s worth noting just how politically potent the question of traditional Islam can be when there are multiple, plausible alternatives to vote for. I don’t suspect that is going to cease being the case any time soon.

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