Oscar Predictions

By Noah Millman • January 9, 2013, 11:18 PM

Because, you know, why not.

Picture: 9 nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Director: Affleck (Argo), Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Hooper (Les Miserables), Lee (Life of Pi), Spielberg (Lincoln)

Actor: Day-Lewis (Lincoln). Does it matter who else? Okay: Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Hawkes (The Sessions), Jackman (Les Miserables), Washington (Flight)

Actress: Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Riva (Amour), Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Weisz (Deep Blue Sea)

Supporting Actor: Bardem (Skyfall), Hoffmann (The Master), Jackson (Django Unchained), Jones (Lincoln), McConaughey (Magic Mike)

Supporting Actress: Hathaway (Les Miserables). Who will beat a great array of supporting nominees, including Adams (The Master), Field (Lincoln), Hunt (The Sessions), and . . . Smith? (Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

Original Screenplay: Anderson & Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom), the other Anderson (The Master), Boal (Zero Dark Thirty), Haneke (Amour), Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Adapted Screenplay: Kushner (Lincoln), Lewin (The Sessions), Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Stoppard (Anna Karenina), Terrio (Argo)

Tune in tomorrow to see how I did.

7 Responses to Oscar Predictions

Zathras says:

January 10, 2013 at 10:24 am

Very well it seems. Nailed the Best Picture nomination, got almost all the others.

For other nominations, I’m not sure anything needed to be nominated for Best Song other than Skyfall. Has there ever been a more obvious winner for Oscars than that?

Noah Millman says:

January 10, 2013 at 10:42 am

Well, at least I nailed Best Picture, 9-for-9. 8-for-10 among major actor categories isn’t bad, but 7-for-10 among the screenwriting nominations disappoints me. Then again, I haven’t seen “Flight” or “Life of Pi,” two that I missed. Worst category was Supporting Actor, where I was 2-for-5.

“Les Miserables” and “Argo” underperformed very high expectations, by missing the Best Director nod. The first is unsurprising – so many people trashed the direction – but the second is surprising. Since I was underwhelmed by the film, I guess I take it as a good sign.

“The Sessions” also underperformed, inasmuch as a lot of people (myself included) thought Hawkes would get a nod for best actor, and that the screenplay would likely be nominated as well. Again, I guess I’m pleasantly surprised. Hawkes is a great actor, but this wasn’t his most interesting performance, and giving him a pass made room for Joaquin Phoenix, who I thought would be passed over in spite of doing truly amazing work. And I was disappointed, in the end, with the film, apart from Hunt’s character and her brave performance, so I’m not unhappy it missed getting an Adapted Screenplay nod.

Meanwhile, “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild” exceeded expectations. I feel pretty good about that as well.

Finally, there’s something singularly appropriate that all the nominations for “Django Unchained,” Tarantino’s slave revenge fantasy, went to white people: the Weinsteins (for producing), Tarantino (for the screenplay), Christoph Waltz (Supporting Actor), Robert Richardson (cinematography), and Dror Mohar (Sound).

Noah Millman says:

January 10, 2013 at 10:51 am

Wish I’d gone with my gut and picked David O. Russell to get a director nod rather than Hooper. But I would never have guessed Zeitlin would be nominated. If I had dared to think Affleck or Bigelow wouldn’t be nominated, I’d have guessed P. T. Anderson (rooting for a film I loved), or Tarantino (on the assumption that my taste and the Academy’s don’t overlap much).

Not making a formal prediction about winners yet, but my gut tells me “Lincoln” is going to win almost everything. Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography . . . even has a shot at the Supporting categories, though the competition there is very tough.