How Over Is The GOP Primary Race?
This over: Trump could lose 8 of the next 10 contests, winning only New Jersey and West Virginia, and still be about 300 delegates ahead of Cruz:
|
Total |
Trump |
Cruz |
Kasich |
|
| Indiana |
57 |
9 |
48 |
0 |
| Nebraska |
36 |
0 |
36 |
0 |
| West Virginia |
34 |
34 |
0 |
0 |
| Oregon |
28 |
10 |
13 |
5 |
| Washington |
44 |
15 |
18 |
11 |
| South Dakota |
29 |
0 |
29 |
0 |
| New Mexico |
24 |
8 |
11 |
5 |
| New Jersey |
51 |
51 |
0 |
0 |
| Montana |
27 |
0 |
27 |
0 |
| California |
172 |
51 |
94 |
27 |
| TOTAL |
502 |
178 |
276 |
48 |
| Current |
954 |
562 |
153 |
|
| Grand Total |
1132 |
838 |
201 |
|
| Shortfall |
105 |
399 |
1034 |
That’s about as bad as it could plausibly get for Trump, and about as good as it could plausibly get for Cruz. Carly Fiorina can’t change that math except at the bare margins. (Though, as I recall from her tenure at HP, math was never her strong suit.)
Meanwhile, Cruz just gave away a bargaining chip that might have been useful for winning over Rubio’s or Kasich’s delegates, which he will absolutely need in the unlikely event that the convention considers turning to him rather than putting Trump over the top (which would be a whole lot easier).
Cruz is by all reports a very clever strategist. I feel like I’m missing something.
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