A year ago, I predicted that President Obama would be reelected for six reasons:
- He’s already President, and incumbents usually win.
- His party is united behind him, whereas the only incumbents in recent memory to lose their reelection bids (Carter and the first Bush) did so after facing significant primary challenges and third-party eruptions in the general election.
- The GOP profoundly distrusts Romney, doesn’t want to nominate him, and will not unite behind him with enthusiasm.
- The GOP has nothing to campaign on because their ideological enthusiasms have no connection to the actual needs of the country.
- The economy is going to steadily if slowly improve, with unemployment slowly dropping over the course of the year leading up to the election.
- I’m planning to vote for him, and I’m talking my book.
The GOP has gotten pretty solidly behind their nominee, so I didn’t get point #3 quite right, but otherwise that’s all been born out, and my prediction stands.
If forced to pick individual states, I expect Obama to win Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin handily, and also New Hampshire, Iowa and Virginia by tighter margins, but to lose Florida, Colorado and North Carolina. That’s a 294-244 split in the Electoral College, slightly better than Bush did in 2004.
- Gary Johnson will get less than 2% of the national popular vote.
- The Democrats will gain a seat in the Senate, picking up Massachusetts, Indiana and (functionally) Maine, and losing only two of Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska (if forced to bet, I say the surprise is they hold Montana).
- In my home state, Gillibrand will coast to reelection, and the Democrats will hold their threatened seats in districts 1 (Eastern L.I.), 21 (the Adirondacks) and 27 (the Western Tier), and will pick up 24 (around Syracuse).
- The Republicans will pick up the North Carolina governorship but will fail to achieve victory in Washington, New Hampshire, or Montana. Not sure why I think the Democrats will outperform in Montana – just a whim, I guess.
Hopefully, we’ll find out tonight whether I’m right.