If Scozzafava would have won 60% in a two-way race, and were such a popular legislator, surely she could have managed more than 20% in the three-way polls right before quitting. And certainly in a three way race, the Democrat would not get over 40%.

How do you blame the third candidate for a type of Nader factor when he was running well ahead of your own, while she was endorsed by the RNC and Gingrich?

Still there had to have been some populist upswelling in the district for non-major party candidate to gain 45 percent. Otherwise Scozzafava would have never had tanked her own campaign.

1. NY-23 is not particularly conservative or ideological. We have too many problems to solve.

2. The Republican party in NYS and the district is dominated by moderates who are fiscally conservative and socially libertarian.

3. Dede Scozzafava is within the mainstream of the district’s Republican Party. She is well regarded, has 10 years experience as a legislator, and has served as whip in the NYS Assembly.

4. In a two person race with Bill Owen she would likely have won 60% of the vote. Over the past 14 congressional elections over 26 years previous Democratic congressional candidates went over 30% of the vote only 3 times. Doug Hoffman underperformed.

5. The blame for the loss of this seat is on Doug Hoffman. After going through the selection process that made Scozzafava the candidate, he bolted the REPUBLICAN PARTY and ran as a CONSERVATIVE.

6. Doug Hoffman’s campaign was a creation of outside money and big name endorsements. Without the Club of Growth he would not have gotten traction from regional voters and politicians.

7. Blacklashes against outside money and big names, and the trashing of Scozzafava hurt Hoffman’s chances.

8. The attacks on Scozzafava have been interpreted by many moderates Republcans at attacks on them. We may see Republican registrations decline in the district. One Republican committeeman in one of the northern counties is expected to change is registration in the next week. Others will follow.