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Why Gingrich Is Overrated

As a remedy for Gingrich-induced panic, I recommend revisiting Jonathan Bernstein’s article from earlier in the month explaining why Gingrich shouldn’t be taken seriously as a major candidate: The reasons why we don’t have to take Newt seriously are many, but the most obvious is that, despite his recent polling, he’s still the same candidate […]

As a remedy for Gingrich-induced panic, I recommend revisiting Jonathan Bernstein’s article from earlier in the month explaining why Gingrich shouldn’t be taken seriously as a major candidate:

The reasons why we don’t have to take Newt seriously are many, but the most obvious is that, despite his recent polling, he’s still the same candidate with all the same baggage. He’s still got his history of deviations from party orthodoxy on practically every issue, and the ethics violations, and the marital problems. He’s still the same guy who wound up not being trusted at all by those who worked with him when he was in office. And he’s still got a long history of just not being very popular with anyone outside of the most intense of intense partisans—and even they are likely aware that he’s risky at best and more likely pure poison in a general election.

Bernstein also points out that Gingrich isn’t receiving any endorsements, and most primary voters aren’t paying much attention to the contest. He might have added that Gingrich has minimal organization in Iowa, and that he only very recently started doing the things that Paul has been doing in the early states for a year or more. Polling surges don’t get people to show up at caucuses, and they don’t readily translate into electoral success. If they did, the 2008 Republican race would have been a contest between Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. Someone might object that Huckabee didn’t have much of an organization but still won Iowa, but Huckabee had an unusual ability to mobilize evangelicals through church networks that I very much doubt Gingrich can copy. As much as some of Gingrich’s rhetoric might satisfy some evangelicals, he is not “one of them” in the way that Huckabee was, and that will make a significant difference.

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