My new column on Syria for The Week is online. Here is an excerpt:
Sectarian warfare in Syria could indeed hamstring Iran’s ability to project power, but it isn’t going to end Iran’s patronage for Hezbollah. Iran’s loss of Syria as an ally would be a significant setback, but it would likely also come at a great cost to the U.S. and friendly governments in the region. Stoking conflict in Syria would destabilize all of Syria’s neighbors, three of which are U.S. allies or clients, potentially contributing to new sectarian conflicts in Iraq and Lebanon. It could also result in the establishment of a less predictable Syrian regime that is no less hostile to Western interests. It makes little sense to risk the stability and security of those states on the assumption that whatever is bad for Iran must be good for us.