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What Happens If The Kiev Protesters Succeed?

Nikolas Gvosdev explains why the political turmoil in Ukraine would continue even if the anti-Yanukovych protesters prevailed: But let’s assume for the sake of argument that all the demands of the so-called Euromaidan protesters are met: The decision on the EU agreement is reversed; the Rada (parliament) dissolves itself; and Yanukovych tenders his resignation. Would […]

Nikolas Gvosdev explains why the political turmoil in Ukraine would continue even if the anti-Yanukovych protesters prevailed:

But let’s assume for the sake of argument that all the demands of the so-called Euromaidan protesters are met: The decision on the EU agreement is reversed; the Rada (parliament) dissolves itself; and Yanukovych tenders his resignation. Would the crisis automatically be over?

There are several reasons to think it wouldn’t be.

Supposing that Yanukovych and his party were forced from power by the protests, it would likely produce a period of government paralysis and economic crisis. Gvosdev notes that the opposition would have difficulty advancing a coherent governing agenda because it is significantly divided on most other issues besides the association agreement and getting rid of the current president. In that scenario, Yanukovych’s party would have strong incentives to hamstring and embarrass a new government. Because Yanukovych has been able to exploit divisions in the opposing coalition before to maneuver his way back to power, it is conceivable that any success the opposition might have in gaining power could be very short-lived. Gvosdev also points out that a new government that rode the current protests into power and pressed ahead with the association agreement would also face the prospect of Russian retaliation, which would inflict substantial economic pain on the country that could turn the population sharply against the new leaders.

Because of that, substantial Western financial support would be critical to the survival of the new government. Gvosdev writes:

If the opposition were to come to power in Ukraine in the midst of a severe economic crisis, brought about by signing the EU accords, it would create the expectation of immediate Western assistance. If that aid did not materialize, it could pave the way for a second Yanukovych comeback, just as it did in 2006.

Western aid is unlikely to be forthcoming in the large amounts that Ukraine would require to counter the effects of Russian punitive measures. Western cheering for the protesters in Kiev isn’t likely to translate into much tangible assistance. If European governments weren’t willing to provide generous terms to Ukraine in the original agreement, why are they going to offer substantial aid later on? And if European governments aren’t willing to able to provide such aid, is there much chance that the U.S. is going to bear the costs of one of the EU’s projects? No, there isn’t. Western sympathizers with foreign protesters are great ones for encouraging uprisings and celebrating “revolutions,” but frequently lose interest in their cause as soon as the story fades from their view.

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