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Trump’s SOTU and North Korea

We should expect some ill-considered ultimatum or more careless rhetoric about military action.
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Trump will reportedly deliver “eye-opening” remarks on North Korea in the State of the Union address tonight:

President Donald Trump will give “eye-opening” remarks Tuesday on US efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, a source familiar with the President’s State of the Union speech said.

The President will talk about the North Korean threat in a “strong and serious way,” the source said.
“It will be eye-opening,” the source added, predicting the portion of the address dedicated to North Korea is likely to drive headlines on Wednesday.

There is virtually nothing that Trump could say tonight that would be “eye-opening” that would also be constructive or responsible. Indeed, it would be far better for Trump to say next to nothing about this issue tonight. Trump is incapable of being serious about important issues, so when we are told that he will talk about something in a “serious” way I take that to mean that he is going to say something reckless and provocative. Considering his track record of statements on North Korea, we should expect some ill-considered ultimatum or more careless rhetoric about military action.

In light of the report on Victor Cha’s withdrawn nomination, the consistent rejection of deterrence by top administration officials, and Trump’s proclivity to making belligerent statements in major speeches, it is much more likely than not that the president is going to make some very hard line statements in the SOTU that the U.S. and its allies will immediately regret. That is likely to further escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula ahead of the Olympics, and it risks causing a more significant rift with the South Korean government.

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