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Trump Is on Track to Win Again

Trump is on track to continue cleaning up in blue-state primaries.
Donald_Trump_by_Gage_Skidmore_2

Five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states vote today, and Trump is poised to win all of them by a wide margin. Trump will likely gain more than a hundred delegates from these states, which brings him significantly closer to securing the nomination. In Pennsylvania, he leads Cruz in the average by 21 points. While it is the state with the largest haul of the day with 71 delegates, most are directly-elected unbound delegates. In spite of this, most say they will back the front-runner or the winner of their districts, and so almost all of the delegates will probably end up in his column anyway:

The picture looks brightest for Trump, who could do well among the unbound delegates, according to CNN interviews with 135 of the 162 candidates on the ballot. About 25% say they’ll support the front-runner, another 42% say they’ll support their district’s choice. This bodes well for Trump, who is poised to win most of the state’s congressional districts.

Twenty percent of respondents said they will support Ted Cruz, while 11% said they planned to remain uncommitted until a later date. The Cruz campaign is urging supporters to back write-in candidates in the 10th and 17th districts.

The situation in neighboring Maryland is much more straightforward: the state’s 38 delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis with most decided by the winner of the state’s Congressional districts. Trump leads Kasich in Maryland by more than 20 points in the average. Trump currently polls over 50% in Connecticut, which makes it likely that he’ll be able to sweep the state’s 28 delegates. Trump is likewise dominating polling in Rhode Island, but because of the state’s proportional delegate allocation he will get just a portion of its 19 delegates. Finally, Trump has a large lead in Delaware, and will take the state’s 16 delegates assigned to the primary winner.

As expected, Trump is on track to continue cleaning up in blue-state primaries. Given his strength with more moderate and secular Republican voters, these were always likely to be among his best states, and it appears that this is what will happen today.

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