The general election is four weeks from tomorrow, and Trump is losing badly according to the latest WSJ/NBC News poll:

In the new survey, Mrs. Clinton jumped to an 11-point lead over Mr. Trump among likely voters on a ballot including third-party candidates, up from 6 percentage points in September.

Clinton’s lead in the RCP average is now four and a half points, and seems likely to increase. Trump’s average support is an anemic 40%, which means he has less support than McCain or Romney at this point. The WSJ/NBC poll found that just 72% of Republicans say they will vote for Trump, which shows how much his support has eroded inside the GOP since the convention. The scenario I described in late March appears to be unfolding:

If Trump ends up as the nominee (still the most likely outcome at this point), the GOP seems doomed to lose by a wide margin thanks to defections, depressed turnout, and the nominee’s unprecedented unfavorability rating.

There was a brief period last month when it seemed that Trump was consolidating enough of the Republican coalition to make the election a more competitive race, but many of those gains have been reversed in the last two weeks. At the same time, many voters that have appeared to be reluctant to support Clinton have started moving into her camp. Trump has not been able to reassemble the losing Romney coalition, and there is little evidence that he has been able to compensate for his losses with some Romney voters by bringing in enough new voters. He has also been trying to sell the electorate on an anti-Obama platform at a time when more than 50% of Americans approve of Obama’s performance as president. That is a message that was tailored to please his primary voters, but it was never well-suited for the general election. On top of all this, Trump’s campaign organization remains weak, and the RNC support he was counting on has reportedly been halted, so it is possible that Trump will end up doing worse than the polls indicate.