Discussions on expanding the group’s membership is not surprising, although that doesn’t mean Iran and Pakistan will soon join, said Niu Jun, a professor at Peking University’s School of International Relations.

Niu said he expected there would be lengthy discussions first, especially on Iran, which would be seen as a provocative move.

“If Iran joined, it would drastically change the original function of the SCO, which was dealing with the terrorism threat with cooperation from China’s neighboring countries. The joining of Iran would mean that the meaning of SCO has totally changed,” he said.

China and Russia also see the group as a way to increase cooperation on financial issues, and consider it a counterweight to U.S. influence in the energy-rich, former Soviet states of Central Asia. Iran’s participation would boost that energy cooperation. ~BusinessWeek

Via Race for Iran

As the Leveretts mention, Iran already has observer status in the SCO, so it would not be that hard to imagine the organization granting Iran full membership. Granting Iran membership would be seen in the West as a provocative move, but a good question is why anyone should be provoked by it. The SCO is not a full-fledged military alliance or defensive pact, and it has existed primarly as a mechanism to consolidate Russian and Chinese political and economic influence in Central Asia. At the moment, it is a limited security and economic structure. If Iran’s application were accepted this year, it would simply underline the how closely Iran’s neighbors are tied to Iran and how uninterested they are in punishing Iran for either its nuclear program or its internal repression. In a way, if it accepted Iran the SCO would be doing the U.S. a favor by demonstrating how efforts to isolate Iran diplomatically and economically will not succeed.

The Leveretts make a valuable observation, which is that Moscow has been the leading advocate of Iranian membership, while it is Beijing that is more reluctant to include Iran at this time. This tells us that the Russians are actively pushing to strengthen their ties with Iran even as the administration tries to persuade us that the Russians are coming around to Washington’s view of Iran. It is true that reports of Russian willingness to cooperate on Iran sanctions are greatly exaggerated, and Moscow’s interest in integrating Iran into the SCO confirms that Russian willingness to impose new sanctions is very limited, conditional and probably very transitory.

Possible integration of Iran into a Sino-Russian-led organization underscores the failure of an Iran policy aimed at isolating and “punishing” Iran by cutting it off from contact with the U.S. Cutting off ties with Iran and threatening additional sanctions have not produced Iranian compliance with U.S. demands, nor have these efforts really punished the Iranian regime, because Iran can simply look elsewhere for trade and diplomatic support. Instead of resuming relations with Iran and providing a counterweight to Russian and Chinese influence, U.S. policy has simply ceded Iran to other major powers by default. Instead of experiencing the isolation that a “rogue state” is supposed to expect, Iran seems to be gaining ground in its relations with its neighbors and rising powers around the world. Inclusion in the SCO would confirm a process of Iran’s integration with these other states that is ongoing.