Last week, Democrat Niki Tsongas won a special election with only 51 percent of the vote, in a Massachusetts district where John Kerry won 57 percent in 2004 and would have run much better in 2006. ~Michael Barone

Only 51 percent of the vote!  That is the exact same result that Deval Patrick had in this district in his gubernatorial race in 2006, which makes it questionable whether Kerry would have necessarily run that much better last year than he did three years ago.  Even so, 2006 was a normal general election, and last week’s big event was a special election with the usual low turnout that such affairs have. 

I have already said plenty about why this election result is not nearly as telling as everyone seems to think it is, but the idea that Tsongas badly underperformed in a supremely strong Democratic district ignores the other evidence that this district had consistently gone for Republican gubernatorial candidates in multiple elections prior to 2006.  The trend in that district has been towards the Democrats on the state level, going from being a Cellucci- and Romney-backing district to a narrowly Patrick-supporting one, and it stands to reason that this trend would be matched in federal voting as well.  In registration, the district is roughly equally independent and Democratic, and it is a more moderate district politically than some of the others in Massachusetts.  If Republicans were going to do well anywhere in Massachusetts, it would have been in the Fifth in a special election against an uninspired machine opponent.  As it was, the best they could do was 45%.  They will be hard pressed to match that result in a rematch in 2008. 

It’s true enough that history “doesn’t stand still,” but all signs still point to “history” being on a course to run over the GOP next fall.  Republicans can tell themselves comforting stories about the perfidies of MoveOn, the “success” of the “surge,” and crow about low approval ratings for Congress, but if the Turks invade Iraq and the national mood remains much as it is or worsens the political consequences for them will not be good.