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The Many Weaknesses of the Republican Party

Nate Cohn explains that lack of Hispanic support for the GOP was just one of the causes of Republican failure this year: The Republicans have a Hispanic problem. But they also have a problem with young voters, African Americans, affluent suburbs, and the rural Midwest [bold mine-DL]. A winning GOP coalition in 2016 will involve […]

Nate Cohn explains that lack of Hispanic support for the GOP was just one of the causes of Republican failure this year:

The Republicans have a Hispanic problem. But they also have a problem with young voters, African Americans, affluent suburbs, and the rural Midwest [bold mine-DL]. A winning GOP coalition in 2016 will involve gains with each of these groups, not just one. And if Republicans assume that a quick flip flop on immigration reform will produce massive gains among Hispanics, they’ll probably be disappointed.

Cohn shows that panicked Republicans are exaggerating the importance of making gains with Hispanics as the solution to their electoral ills, but they are also underestimating the difficulty in making those gains by reducing it to a matter of immigration policy. Even if the amnesty-for-votes idea worked, it wouldn’t remedy all of the GOP’s electoral weaknesses by itself. If the Republican ticket had received much higher levels of Hispanic support this year, that wouldn’t have changed the outcome of the election:

Here’s a simple way of looking at it: if Hispanics swing 20 points in the GOP’s direction in every swing state [bold mine-DL], Obama would have won the Electoral College by a 303-235 margin.

The GOP may be facing a long-term problem in Texas with future Hispanic voters, but it faces several more immediate problems all around the country. As long as the GOP is seen as working in the interests of corporations and concentrated wealth, and as long as it promotes an economic agenda that includes little or nothing relevant for most working- and middle-class Americans, any other changes it makes will most likely be in vain.

Jindal’s rebuke to Romney is fine as far as it goes, but notice what he says in his response. Jindal said:

One, we are fighting for 100 percent of the votes, and secondly, our policies benefit every American who wants to pursue the American dream, period. No exceptions.

Jindal is obviously a much less tone-deaf politician than Romney, but he is simply asserting that “our policies benefit every American who wants to pursue the American dream.” This could depend on what Jindal means by “our policies,” but if he’s talking about what the national GOP has done when it was in power in the last decade and what it proposes to do in the future it doesn’t appear to be true. Asserting that Republican policies benefit everyone doesn’t make the GOP more appealing. When it appears that these policies don’t even seem to benefit large numbers of the GOP’s reliable voters, telling people that they benefit from policies that do little or nothing for them isn’t the way to gain their trust or support. Not recognizing this is the root of the party’s weaknesses with voters.

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