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The Many Fronts of the Libyan War

Instead, the coalition, through aggressive attacks on Tripoli and a naval blockade, has adopted a campaign of coercion. There are three problems with this. First, punishing adversaries rarely works. Nato has inflated the costs of capitulation and made a settlement less likely. Second, the regime has levelled the playing field by switching to hit-and-run tactics […]

Instead, the coalition, through aggressive attacks on Tripoli and a naval blockade, has adopted a campaign of coercion. There are three problems with this. First, punishing adversaries rarely works. Nato has inflated the costs of capitulation and made a settlement less likely. Second, the regime has levelled the playing field by switching to hit-and-run tactics in the south, plain-clothes soldiers in the east and rocket attacks in Misrata. Third, coercion may flounder as the regime waits out the coalition. But to ensure this longevity, Muammar Gaddafi has had to switch his focus to securing the war’s lifelines.

This is why the battles in the west and the interior of Libya are crucial. It is why Colonel Gaddafi’s forces have redeployed forces from Misrata to the west. ~Shashank Joshi

Joshi has been providing some of the better analysis over the last several weeks, and his new column is worth reading. Related to what Joshi describes here, The Independent has a report on Libyan regime efforts in the interior of the country to cut off the rebels on the coast from some of the main water and oil reserves:

The oasis of Jalo, 250km south of the front line between Ajdabiya and Brega, has witnessed repeated raids by a fast-moving enemy that attacks and then disappears back into the desert.

The assaults by regime forces come amid reports last night that rebels were poised to take the airport in the western coastal city of Misrata, which has been under siege for nearly two months. But despite rebels claiming a major breakthrough against the forces of Muammar Gaddafi, the battle for control of the sparsely populated Jalo area could have greater long-term consequences.

When the town of Jalo rose up against the Gaddafi regime the day after the revolution began in Benghazi, regime loyalists fled – but they have since returned in force. The area is now ringed by pro-Gaddafi forces, who have occupied nearby oilfields and are using them to shelter from Nato air strikes and launch sabotage and kidnap missions.

As the article also explains, the resistance to Gaddafi’s rule in the western mountains threatens fuel supplies for the capital and the regime’s forces, so both sides in the conflict are at risk of losing their lifelines. The point here is to emphasize Joshi’s argument, which is that the parts of the conflict that are receiving relatively little attention may prove to be more important to the overall outcome. They also happen to be the parts of the conflict where NATO’s role appears to be less significant so far.

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