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The “Hurricane” Is Getting Closer

“These numbers are scary. We’ve lost every advantage we’ve ever had,” GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “The good news is Democrats don’t have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one.” ~MSNBC When my dad and I talk about politics, which is fairly often, he reminds me of the old […]

“These numbers are scary. We’ve lost every advantage we’ve ever had,” GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “The good news is Democrats don’t have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one.” ~MSNBC

When my dad and I talk about politics, which is fairly often, he reminds me of the old adage that “you can’t beat somebody with nobody.” That’s undoubtedly true. But maybe you can beat an incompetent somebody with a ridiculous nonentity. Hey, if it can work for Bush…

Speaking of Mr. Bush, here are some interesting numbers to look over:

Only 40 percent of the public approves of Bush’s performance on foreign policy and the war on terror, another low-water mark for his presidency. That’s down 9 points from a year ago. Just before the 2002 election, 64 percent of registered voters backed Bush on terror and foreign policy.

The GOP in Congress doesn’t fare any better:

By a 49-33 margin, the public favors Democrats over Republicans when asked which party should control Congress.

That 16-point Democratic advantage is the largest the party has enjoyed in AP-Ipsos polling.

Now being the party of immigration and Dubai is beginning to wear thin even with men, the dedicated core of regular GOP voters:

On an issue the GOP has dominated for decades, Republicans are now locked in a tie with Democrats — 41 percent each — on the question of which party people trust to protect the country. Democrats made their biggest national security gains among young men, according to the AP-Ipsos poll, which had a 3 percentage point margin of error.


The GOP’s salvation? It will come, as usual, from the idiocy of their opponents. As my dad also reminded me, Democrats usually do relatively poorly in off-year elections because they have weaker-than-usual turnout in non-presidential national elections. (The dynamic of many disgruntled Republicans and an intense core of energised Democrats may work against this, but it is a compelling point.) The “strategy” of the Democrats is apparently to make a lot of noise about corruption and ethics scandals. I don’t like the current GOP leadership, and even I am yawning when I hear this.

Those will play well in those parts of the country where the local Republicans have covered themselves in mire (Illinois, Ohio), but it won’t carry over to most other places. The Pennsylvania GOP is struggling in statewide elections (Lynn Swann enjoys as much favour in the polls these days as he does because everyone is sick to death of Rendell), and there are vulnerable House seats here and there, such as that of my representative, Heather Wilson, that stand a good chance of falling to the Democrats, but as of right now the Democrats have no general platform with which they can “nationalise” this race. With Howard Dean in command, they aren’t likely to get one, either.

Update: However, if GOP voters cannot stomach their own congressional leadership, they may well stay home or even do the unthinkable of voting against the party whose policies they dislike:

Overall approval for Congress was 30 percent, with 67 percent disapproving. About six in 10, 61 percent, of Republicans said they disapprove of the Congress, while 74 percent of Democrats felt that way about the GOP-led Congress. ~Seattle P-I

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