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The Best Of Both Worlds?

Clearly, I overestimated Democratic power in New Jersey, which I assumed was more or less unbeatable despite Corzine’s low approval ratings and weak polling. The pick-ups in both gubernatorial races were impressive, and it seems to me that the scale of the win in Virginia was significant and not easily dismissed in a state that […]

Clearly, I overestimated Democratic power in New Jersey, which I assumed was more or less unbeatable despite Corzine’s low approval ratings and weak polling. The pick-ups in both gubernatorial races were impressive, and it seems to me that the scale of the win in Virginia was significant and not easily dismissed in a state that had been trending Democratic for the last several cycles. Even taking into account that Corzine had once trailed Christie by double digits, a statewide Republican win in New Jersey certainly signals dissatisfaction with the status quo at the state level. Certainly lower turnout favors the more mobilized party, and Republicans made the most of this today. Exit polling indicates that protest votes against Obama were more or less offset by support for him, but there appears to be much less enthusiasm on the Democratic side. Oddly enough, the one race in which there seems to have been overperformance in the Democratic effort was in the House special election that doesn’t have much significance.

What is more encouraging to me is that the wins by Christie and McDonnell show that competent center-right candidates interested in governance and all those “parochial” local issues can tap into voter discontent and win electoral victories. Hoffman’s possible defeat suggests that campaigns dominated by the presence of national activists, empty sloganeering and indifference to local interests may not gain traction even in those districts that are traditionally inclined to favor the politics of someone like Hoffman. Those of us who would like to see Democratic domestic agendas thwarted without empowering the Palins of the world may have managed to get exactly the results we would wish to have.

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