Last week I observed that Obama’s real political problem was not the alienation of white men and white independents as some accounts would have it, but rather the disaffection of core Democratic constituencies, which now give Obama dramatically lower approval ratings than they gave him electoral support. Perhaps the administration saw the same thing and went ahead with a final push for health care legislation on the gamble that this would do more to energize their own people than it would provoke resistance. Perhaps if Congress does produce some bill in the near future that gamble will pay off, but in the meantime Obama continues losing ground with self-described liberals.

In 2008, according to CNN’s exit polling 89% of liberals voted for Obama, and now just 73% approve. 67% of those who rarely or never attend church voted for Obama, and now just 52% approve. According to Gallup, conservative approval continues to be higher (27%) than Obama’s share of the conservative vote (20%), and moderate support remains fairly steady. Obama has lost a little ground with Republicans in recent weeks, but this comes entirely from liberal and moderate Republicans (down five points from last week), and the 12% approval is higher than Obama’s share of the Republican vote (9%). His overall approval among Democrats has remained steady over the last couple of months because approval gains among conservative Democrats (up eight points to 75%) keep offsetting losses among liberal Democrats (down five points to 84% this week).

Even when we look at results from the crosstabs of a late February Rasmussen poll of likely voters, we find the same thing. Conservative likely voters are no more inclined to approve of Obama (19%) than conservatives were inclined to vote for him (20%), but he receives just 82% from liberal likely voters, (vs. 89%) 54% from 18-29 year old LVs (vs. 66%), 51% from women LVs (vs. 56%), and 80% from Democrat LVs (vs. 89%). It is difficult to look at this data and conclude that Obama’s political problem has been his lack of “centrism.”