Bottom line: Mitt Romney is now the favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses in January, eight days before New Hampshire. ~Pat Buchanan

This is why Giuliani and McCain’s abandonment of Ames will probably be Romney’s undoing.  The pressure will be on Romney now to not only win decisively in Ames, but to win the caucuses in January by a similarly large margin.  Any failure to dominate in Iowa will be attributed to Romney’s weaknesses as a candidate (and these are legion) rather than to the strengths of his competitors.  If he goes into Ames against the equivalent of political midgets (at least as far as the media are concerned), he had better come away with much more than a Bushesque 31%.  In the absence of active competition from McCain and Giuliani, Romney needs to get 50 or 60%.  If Giuliani and McCain were to get much support at an event where they were not actively competing, that would also be a blow to Romney.  The ever-higher expectations that this scenario creates for Romney are probably going to harm his campaign more than a win at Ames will help.  The expectation that he will win the caucuses is also a significant burden.  Just as it is for Edwards, Iowa has become a must-win for Romney.  Anything less than a convincing first place finish will be received by the press and donors as a marginal defeat.  Meanwhile, the resources he will be compelled to commit to Iowa despite the lack of real competition are resources he will be unable to divert to compete against Giuliani in Florida, against McCain in New Hampshire and against the second-tier conservatives in South Carolina.  He has suddenly acquired the problems of a frontrunner without the attendant benefits in national name recognition and support.