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The Aftermath

The number with an unfavorable view of Obama has risen from 44% on Thursday to 50% today. Among White voters, Obama is now viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 54%. Looked at from a slightly longer perspective, Obama’s overall favorable ratings peaked at 56% on February 21, shortly after he won the Wisconsin Primary. […]

The number with an unfavorable view of Obama has risen from 44% on Thursday to 50% today. Among White voters, Obama is now viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 54%.

Looked at from a slightly longer perspective, Obama’s overall favorable ratings peaked at 56% on February 21, shortly after he won the Wisconsin Primary. At that point, Clinton began raising questions about Obama as part of the campaign that ultimately enabled her to win the Texas and Ohio Primaries. Since then, Obama’s net favorability ratings have fallen seventeen points (from plus 14 points on February 21 to minus 3 points today). ~Rasmussen

In their daily presidential tracking poll, McCain has opened up his widest lead over Obama yet at six points (48-42) nationally, and he retains a net positive fav rating.  Most troubling for the Obama campaign has to be the data showing that Wright’s remarks make 56% less likely to vote for Obama against just 11% who are more likely.  That’s obviously an enormous blow, and frankly larger than what I thought it would be.  44% of Democrats are less likely to vote for him because of this, and in a real blow to Obama’s coalition 57% of independents say they are less likely to vote for him (of course, 70% of Republicans say the same).  The people who would make for interesting interview subjects are the 7% of Republicans who say they are more likely to vote for Obama because of the remarks–who are these people?  Interestingly, aside from conservatives (74% are less likely), Wright’s remarks are most damaging to Obama among 18-29 year olds (62% say they are less likely to vote for Obama now, and only 12% are more likely) and voters for whom religion and faith are either very (67%/10%) or somewhat important (62%/11%).  Black (18% less, 29% more) and secular voters (those for whom religion and faith are “not at all important”) are the least affected by Wright’s comments (just 23% are less likely, 17% more likely). 

This may be the beginning of a hemorrhaging of support for Obama, which is pretty much in line with what I said a month ago:

Once he becomes better known to the broader electorate, his numbers will start tanking.

And a bit earlier still:

…if the nominee is Obama the Democrats are going to have their own electability problems. 

In this post, I floated the prospect of a 1964-like landslide if Obama were the Democratic nominee (with Obama playing the role of Goldwater), which may still overstate things, but not necessarily by that much.

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