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The Advantages of a Cease-Fire in Libya (III)

The regime controls around 20 per cent more territory than it did in the immediate aftermath of the uprising on 17 February. ~The Independent Despite the claims that “all trends favor the rebels,” the rebels in Libya remain as far from their goal as ever. It is absurd to continue refusing a cease-fire in the […]

The regime controls around 20 per cent more territory than it did in the immediate aftermath of the uprising on 17 February. ~The Independent

Despite the claims that “all trends favor the rebels,” the rebels in Libya remain as far from their goal as ever. It is absurd to continue refusing a cease-fire in the vain hope that there will be a breakthrough, which the onset of Ramadan makes even less likely. In the meantime, the civilian population suffers from the prolonged conflict:

The problem is that the Libyan people — the same people NATO is trying to protect — suffer too. There are food shortages in Tripoli, and long lines for fuel.

The CIA estimates that before the current crisis, a third of the Libyan population was living at the poverty level. Cordesman says the past few months have made things even worse.

“Nobody has enough momentum to stop this from becoming what it already is: an agonizing, drawn-out process doing immense economic damage to the Libyan people, in which no one can be certain of the outcome,” he says.

In other words, the NATO operation meant to prevent one kind of humanitarian crisis may be contributing to another.

I would point out that the Libyans that NATO has been trying to protect are primarily anti-regime Libyans. Libyans that are on the other side of the civil war would theoretically receive the same protection, but in practice NATO’s mission is to facilitate the rebel advance, which means facilitating reprisals against pro-regime Libyans. While war supporters may console themselves with the idea that regime change is ultimately better for the civilian population, a mission to protect the civilian population in this case is not compatible with pursuing regime change.

As I have been arguing for several months, a cease-fire leading to a negotiated settlement is the best way out of this. At the very least, a cease-fire would permit the civilian population in Gaddafi-controlled areas to receive vital food and medical supplies. Jonathan Steele lays out how this might happen:

No wonder western governments are having to review their strategy. The parameters of a settlement have been clear for some time. There must be a mutually agreed ceasefire, on the ground and for Nato’s bombs and missiles. This would allow internationally supervised access for humanitarian supplies to Tripoli and other government-held areas as well as rebel areas. Talks need to accelerate, either through the UN mediator or between government and TNC negotiators, towards forming a power-sharing administration that can find a path to a new constitution and elections. Gaddafi has indicated he does not want to be part of the talks. He will probably have to make clear he will not be part of the next government either. Whether, after 42 years of power, any such promises would be delivered will be a thorny issue. The rebels already snort at it.

All now depends on the sequencing of the elements of a settlement. For the rebels to insist Gaddafi stands down before talks start dooms everything. Ideally, the first step is a ceasefire. This would be by far the best way to protect civilians. The UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, called for an immediate ceasefire earlier this month. If Ban were a stronger figure, his call would have carried more weight instead of being ignored by western leaders as well as most of the media. Nato hawks fear it would look defeatist so they prefer to parrot the line that that Gaddafi cannot be trusted, and therefore a ceasefire would be worthless.

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