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Take It Or Leave It

As I mentioned the other day, treaty opponents have a very curious attitude towards the Russian government right now. On the one hand, they are deeply suspicious of it. The moment that the treaty is ratified, Moscow will somehow use the irrelevant, non-binding language of the preamble to pressure the U.S. to “constrain” missile defense […]

As I mentioned the other day, treaty opponents have a very curious attitude towards the Russian government right now. On the one hand, they are deeply suspicious of it. The moment that the treaty is ratified, Moscow will somehow use the irrelevant, non-binding language of the preamble to pressure the U.S. to “constrain” missile defense plans. At the same time, they take everything Russian officials say at face value with remarkable credulity. If the Russians claim that they will withdraw from the treaty if the U.S. presses ahead with missile defense, treaty opponents believe that this is gospel. They think this proves that Moscow will abandon a treaty that the opponents say the Russians desperately want in order to protest a missile defense system the Russians cannot stop anyway. That doesn’t make any sense. It never occurs to treaty opponents that this is intended to spin the treaty as favorable to Russian interests when it clearly gives them nothing on missile defense.

At the same time, if Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov tries to minimize the impact non-ratification or delay will have on the U.S.-Russian relationship, that can’t be damage control. It must be a prophecy of the future. It’s true that New START ratification is not a make-or-break moment in U.S.-Russian relations, because the common interests of the two governments are significant enough that they don’t hinge on any one agreement, but up until now Russia has received nothing from the “reset” aside from the removal of a few U.S. provocations. If the Russian government can point to treaty ratification as evidence that the improved relationship with the U.S. delivers some tangible benefits to Russia, that will make future cooperation easier, and it increases the chances of successful negotiations on tactical nuclear weapons. If Moscow has nothing to show for the last two years of cooperation, their government may conclude that they have other options, and the U.S. and our allies can forget about any future negotiations for quite some time.

The National Review editors call for the usual changes to be made to the treaty. Since Sergei Lavrov has become the new guiding light for them, perhaps they should ponder what he said just the other day about making changes to the treaty:

“The START agreement, which was drafted on the basis of strict parity, completely meets the national interests of both Russia and the U.S.,” Lavrov told Interfax.

The minister added the treaty could not be reopened, becoming the subject of new negotiations. Lavrov’s warning came just hours after U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff’ Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen urged congressional leaders through a letter to quickly ratify the agreement.

Calling for the treaty to be delayed so that it can be revised and re-worked is a call for scrapping any agreement with Russia. Instead of some ideal verification regime that is probably either unnecessary or impractical, the U.S. will have no ability to verify anything through inspections. There will be no “better deal” for Republicans to get next year. This isn’t an omnibus bill. The arms reduction agreement will fall apart if it is altered enough to satisfy the treaty’s unreasonable critics. The good news is that it seems that there will be no need to satisfy them, as there will be just enough support for the treaty in its current form.

Update: Isakson and Bennett have declared for the treaty. After all of his complaining last week, I didn’t think Alexander would support the treaty in this session, but it looks as if he realizes that the treaty will be ratified anyway and doesn’t want to be on the other side. As expected, Murkowski will also support the treaty. Resistance to the treaty is now reportedly crumbling.

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