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Some Remarkable Polling Trends

Here is the graph projecting Bush’s midterm approval rating that is making the rounds: And here is the commentary by Charles Franklin of Political Arithmetik who worked up the statistics for the graph: President Bush’s approval rating is on course to set a record low for mid-term elections. The magnitude of the problem is greater […]

Here is the graph projecting Bush’s midterm approval rating that is making the rounds:

MidtermApproval.jpg

And here is the commentary by Charles Franklin of Political Arithmetik who worked up the statistics for the graph:

President Bush’s approval rating is on course to set a record low for mid-term elections. The magnitude of the problem is greater than commonly perceived. The previous record low approval in the last Gallup poll of October was 41% for President Truman in 1950. Based on approval trends in 2005-06, the President and Congressional Republicans are facing an election day 2006 approval of between 20.4% and 40.8%. (The range is highlighted in the graph for 2006. The “dot” is the estimate based on the trend in most of 2005, which is less than half the current rate of decline.)

Via Andrew Sullivan

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