fbpx
Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Some Football Banter to Lighten the Mood

But on fourth down, the penalty for failure is severe — you turn the ball over to the other team. So, you’ll probably run a conservative play to grind out the needed yardage and not much more. Knowing that, on lower downs, the defense tends to play back to prevent giving up a touchdown or […]

But on fourth down, the penalty for failure is severe — you turn the ball over to the other team. So, you’ll probably run a conservative play to grind out the needed yardage and not much more. Knowing that, on lower downs, the defense tends to play back to prevent giving up a touchdown or long gain. ~Steve Sailer

Mr. Sailer is here tearing apart the silly musings of an economist about the desirability of running a play on fourth down in the context of “maximising” a team’s potential offense (football coaches, you see, do not take enough risks), also discussed here. His observations are right, but I would just add that significant variables of the circumstances in the game determine whether or not it is more or less desirable to make an attempt on fourth down. Unless you are trailing badly, exceedingly close to the end zone or are behind and running out of time, it is almost never the advisable thing to do. Like many an ill-advised two-point conversion, going on fourth down has as much to do with psychological gamesmanship, ego and contempt for the defense as it has to do with the probability of actually getting a first down. Just as often, it winds up losing you the game.

This does not require degrees in economics, proficency with statistics or a tremendous amount of time spent playing football; any moderately intelligent spectator can pick up on this without any difficulty after acquainting himself with the game over the course of a season. It takes an economist and his raft of graphs and projections to treat as nonsense what common sense would tell 9 out of 10 football fans.

Advertisement

Comments

The American Conservative Memberships
Become a Member today for a growing stake in the conservative movement.
Join here!
Join here