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Rubio’s Limited Support

Many pundits and party elites fail to acknowledge Rubio's limited support.
marco rubio

On a different subject, Michael Cohen is making more sense:

But there is something very strange about the disparity between national pundits and members of the GOP establishment who are convinced that Rubio is the best man for the job — and the lack of discernible enthusiasm for his candidacy among the GOP’s rank-and-file. Yes, on paper, Rubio seems to be as good a bet to win as anyone who is running. But it’s also pretty clear that, several months into the race, he has not convinced actual GOP voters that this is true.

To be precise, Rubio’s support nationally and in three early states remains almost exactly where it was in the spring after he announced. His national numbers are, in fact, slightly lower than they were in the weeks following his announcement. Rubio had 14% support in the RCP average of national polls in May, and now he has 11%. In New Hampshire, he was averaging 10.5% in late May, which is almost exactly where he is again now. In the intervening months, Rubio has faded and then regained some of the support he lost over the summer, but he doesn’t appear to have added any new supporters all year. The recent “surge” in support following the third debate has managed to get Rubio back to where he started six months ago. If Trump and Carson weren’t in the race, that might not be so much of a problem, but they are and in that same period both have sped past him.

That isn’t the profile of a campaign that is going from strength to strength. It looks like a campaign that has a small base of support and isn’t able to expand beyond it. I don’t find that surprising, but I am a confirmed Rubio-skeptic. What’s a little strange is that so many pundits and party elites fail to acknowledge Rubio’s limited support. I suspect the reason that so many of them don’t is that Rubio is the candidate that they would prefer as the nominee given the alternatives of Trump and Carson, and so many of them insist that this is what will eventually happen. For many pundits and party elites, a Trump or Carson nomination is unthinkable for various reasons, and so they place their hope in the alternative that doesn’t alarm them. But it’s important to understand that this is just the outcome they desire. The evidence suggests that it is not the one that they are most likely to get.

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