With just three days until the election (can it be true–it’s really almost over?), here are some not terribly surprising predictions. Obama will win 54-46% with 364 votes in the Electoral College (Missouri will vote for Obama). Republicans will lose Senate seats in AK, NM, CO, VA, NH, NC, OR and MN, but narrowly retain the GA, MS and KY seats. In the House, Democrats will lose TX-22 and FL-16, as these are normally heavily Republican districts that were lost due to past scandals, as well as PA-11 (Kanjorski’s seat) and LA-06 (Cazayoux will not prevail in the general), but Nancy Boyda in Kansas and Shea-Porter in New Hampshire will be re-elected. The Democrats will win 33 other seats: IL-11, AK-AL, FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, CO-04, OH-16, NY-29, MI-09, CA-04, ID-01, IL-10, MD-01, LA-04, NJ-07, NJ-03, MI-07, MN-03, NC-08, NV-03, NM-02, OH-01, OH-15, PA-03, WA-08, IN-03, NY-26, OH-02, NY-13, NY-25, VA-11 and VA-05. Baffling outsiders, Bachmann will survive the fallout from her Hardball interview. So, in some relatively good news for the GOP, the majority will have a net gain of just 29.
Darren White will win in NM-01, continuing the inexplicable tradition of metro Albuquerque always electing a Republican representative. This last prediction is the one most likely to be proved false, because I voted for White and there is another time-honored tradition that says that every candidate I vote for must lose.