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Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Revisited

Jonathan Tobin imagines that the administration favors the Palestinians: Rather than a superficial partisan approach to foreign policy, the congressional effort to act as a brake on Obama’s tilting of the diplomatic playing field toward the Palestinians reflects the deeply held convictions of most Americans. This just isn’t so. Obviously, there has been no “tilting” […]

Jonathan Tobin imagines that the administration favors the Palestinians:

Rather than a superficial partisan approach to foreign policy, the congressional effort to act as a brake on Obama’s tilting of the diplomatic playing field toward the Palestinians reflects the deeply held convictions of most Americans.

This just isn’t so. Obviously, there has been no “tilting” toward the Palestinians. Even if there had been, the threats of aid cut-offs coming from Congress don’t reflect the “deeply held convictions of most Americans.” They reflect the convictions of members of Congress that there is every political incentive to side publicly with Israel and quite a few disincentives to do anything else. Members can be pressured so effectively because they know most Americans don’t care very much about this issue, but those who do care are very attentive, engaged, and politically active, and they are almost all on one side of the issue. What is noticeable about the reaction from Congress to the Palestinian statehood bid is how out of step with American public opinion it is. Once again, we see that public opinion is absolutely not driving the making of foreign policy.

I am reasonably sure that most Americans don’t have deeply held convictions on this question one way or the other. According to the new Pew survey, it would be a stretch to say that 30-40% of Americans hold any convictions on this subject at all. When asked about U.S. recognition of Palestinian statehood, 42% favor it and another 32% have no opinion. When asked about their sympathies for the two sides, 21% say neither, 10% say the Palestinians, and another 25% have no opinion. 40% sympathize more with the Israelis. 38% offer no opinion on Obama’s handling of the issue, 37% say he has struck the right balance between the two sides, 5% say he has favored Israel too much, and just 20% say that he favors the Palestinians. Judging by this poll, there are more Americans indifferent or unwilling to take a position on the conflict than there are sympathizers for either side, just one out of four Americans opposes U.S. recognition of Palestine, and only a small minority of Americans shares Tobin’s assessment of the administration’s record.

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