Tonight will be the first Republican presidential debates of the year. The main debate for the ten candidates with the highest national polling numbers begins at 9:00 Eastern, and it follows the consolation debate for the also-rans and never-should-have-runs that begins at 5:00. I’m planning to watch both and comment on them on Twitter (@DanielLarison), and I’ll probably have something to say here once they’re finished. The fact that there will be two debates is a reminder that the Republican field is absurdly and unnecessarily large, and after tonight it will become even more apparent that at least half of the declared candidates add little or nothing to the intra-party debate. If we weren’t already, we will be made painfully aware how few substantive policy disagreements there are among the seventeen candidates, which means that the debates are probably going to be focused more on trivia, tactics, rhetoric, and the candidates’ personality quirks.

It seemed possible a year or two ago that the Republican presidential debates could have been occasions for a serious intra-party fight over foreign policy, but especially on the Iran deal and the war on ISIS there will be no significant disagreements in either debate tonight. The main differences will be between super-hawks that are willing to endorse sending ground forces into combat in Iraq and Syria and support military action against Iran and the generic hawks that will denounce Obama on both issues without making too many specific commitments. There probably won’t be many illuminating clashes between the two sides, since the most outspoken hard-liners (e.g., Santorum, Graham, etc.) are grouped in the earlier debate and the more generic hawks are clustered in the later one.

There may be some discussion of seeking a new authorization for the war on ISIS, which has now been illegally going on for a year, but most of the candidates don’t think a new authorization is needed and don’t want to see any limitations placed on the president’s ability to wage wars wherever and whenever he likes. To the extent that the candidates quarrel with each other over the nuclear deal, it will be over the intensity of their opposition to it. Walker and Bush will probably resume their dispute from last month about how quickly the U.S. can renege on its commitments, Rubio and Huckabee will denounce the deal as fanatically as they can, and Paul will probably equivocate by opposing the deal without promising to reject it once in office. The debates are sure to be very dispiriting viewing for anyone interested in foreign policy restraint, peace, and non-intervention.