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Predictions for the Most Competitive 2014 Governors’ Races

Scott Walker will fall short and lose his bid for re-election.
Scott Walker

Massachusetts: Martha Coakley has consistently trailed in this race in recent weeks, and has already demonstrated a knack at losing statewide races. That isn’t entirely her fault. As Jason Zengerle reported earlier this week, she is up against an opponent who has been “running one of the better campaigns of 2014,” and she is being pulled down by the outgoing Democratic governor’s record. Despite being a very Democratic state, Massachusetts has no aversion to electing Republican governors, and I assume Baker will go on to win the election.

Colorado: Incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper is in a dead heat with former Rep. Bob Beauprez. One of Hickenlooper’s problems is a controversy over the application of the death penalty and the governor’s decision to grant a reprieve in one particular case. That decision was overwhelmingly unpopular, and it is feeding into a perception that Hickenlooper makes many decisions that “appear more political than substantive.” Sen. Mark Udall’s flailing campaign can’t be helping other Democrats on the ballot, either. Beauprez wins very narrowly.

Florida: This may be the most ridiculous gubernatorial race this year, as it pits former Gov. Charlie Crist, now playing at being a Democrat, against the incumbent Gov. Rick Scott. By all rights, neither of them should be governor of anything, much less a large state, but one of them will be. Crist is a consummate opportunist and remains obnoxiously ambitious. He demonstrated this four years ago when he left the GOP in a desperate bid to win an open Senate seat. For his part, Scott is a remarkably poor politician and has had terrible approval ratings for years. Crist has a very modest polling lead. A race between these two truly is a race to the bottom, and I assume that Crist will come out ahead only because he represents a “change” from the current administration.

Georgia: Nathan Deal holds a small lead over his Democratic challenger Jason Carter, grandson of the former president, but hasn’t been able to clear the 50% mark so far. As with the Senate race, there will have to be a run-off in the new year. I expect that Deal will win next week and again in January.

Illinois: The governor’s race here is very close between incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican Bruce Rauner. Quinn has been an underwhelming governor since taking over for the disgraced Blagojevich, but any Democratic candidate in a statewide race has to be considered a strong favorite. I assume that Quinn ekes out a win.

Maine: This three-way race pits the incumbent Republican against the Democrat Mike Michaud and independent Eliot Cutler. Gov. Paul LePage is in many respects an unusual sort of Republican, as Michael Brendan Dougherty first reported here for TAC two years ago. Dougherty followed that up with a more recent column on what makes LePage distinct from most other politicians. Because of the three-way split, LePage seems likely to sneak through to re-election.

Michigan: Incumbent Rick Snyder is in a very tight race with his Democratic challenger Mark Schauer. Snyder’s approval ratings have been in the low 40s heading into the fall, and that suggests that the challenger will be the one to prevail.

Kansas: Gov. Sam Brownback is facing a significant backlash over the agenda he has pushed through in his first term, and the Kansas GOP as a whole is suffering as a result. The race is very close, but Brownback actually trails his challenger in the RCP polling average. The Democratic challenger Paul Davis will win.

Wisconsin: This is probably the most-watched gubernatorial race this year. It is considered a test cast for whether Republican governors can push through aggressive measures against public sector unions and survive politically, and on a less important note it will determine whether or not incumbent Scott Walker will be in a position to launch a credible presidential bid next year. Walker retains a narrow lead over Democrat Mary Burke, but I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Walker falls short and loses his bid for re-election.

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