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Podhoretz on Iraqi Constitution

Make no mistake, Rich. The failure to agree to a constitution, if the Iraqis do fail to agree on a constitution, will be a grievous blow. It will be seen as an invalidation of the triumphant January elections, since their purpose was the creation of a body to write the constitution. It will depress the […]

Make no mistake, Rich. The failure to agree to a constitution, if the Iraqis do fail to agree on a constitution, will be a grievous blow. It will be seen as an invalidation of the triumphant January elections, since their purpose was the creation of a body to write the constitution. It will depress the Iraqis, be seen as a major policy defeat for Bush and cause panic on Capitol Hill. The argument that you can’t impose democracy on a nation that isn’t ready for it will be in the ascendant, and the “people yearn to be free” camp will be on the defensive in a big way. The realists will smirk, the anti-war folks will cackle, the administration will be bereft. Speaking as someone who has always looked on the optimistic side, this one will hurt. Bad. Very, very bad. ~John Podhoretz, The Corner on NRO, August 16

I was surprised that Podhoretz had the courage to admit all of this in public. I was even more surprised that his analysis, usually so very shoddy or dishonest, was more or less acurrate.

My guess is that the Iraqis will create a constitution in the way that the Austrian Republic created a constitution after WWI. The Christian Socials and Socialists knew that they could never agree on a whole host of issues at the level of national government and turned most major social policy, cultural and educational questions back to the Laender. Thus the “constitution” was largely focused on the procedural and administrative elements of forming the national government, while most of the most significant policy decisions were decided at the Land level where each party could shape the regions it dominated as it saw fit. Vienna became a giant socialist laboratory and rural Austria remained solidly Catholic or nationalist until the establishment of the Dollfuss regime.

The Austrian parallel is instructive, if a bit too optimistic about the prospects of a working government coming together, in that the internal contradictions of the Republic, which had once been only one part of a much larger state, ultimately forced a conflict between the two dominant forces resulting in the overall victory and control of one prior to foreign occupation. It is entirely conceivable that the Shi’ites and Kurds will replay the parts of the Christian Socials and Socialists in many ways (although obviously not all) and Iran will sweep in either to support or destroy whichever authoritarian regime arises out of the internal conflicts.

The model is obviously imperfect, since the Kurds want nothing more than independence and will probably seek that before they seek control of the whole state, but the Austrian example is helpful in reminding all of us that whatever emerges from this joke constitutional panel will have made little or no progress on the major points of conflict (i.e., the promise of a Kurdish independence referendum, control of oil revenues, role of Islam, etc.). All parties will kick those issues down the road, so to speak, and wait until they they obtain their seats in a future assembly to determine how the minimalist constitution they will create will actually be used.

The Shi’ites can afford to wait until they obtain a significant majority in any future assembly and then begin amending the law or changing it by fiat, and the Kurds will seek independence one way or another, referendum or no. It is all very discouraging from the Iraqi perspective, since it means continued instability and violence for another decade, and as long as we tie our presence to their political progress it is also disastrous for us. This is why we ought to detach the question of our remaining in Iraq from the political track in Iraq, as the two really have little to do with each other. The small upside is that the failure to establish the Iraqi constitution will annoy Podhoretz and his ilk.

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