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Obama v. McCain (New Mexico)

Rasmussen’s results for a general election match-up between McCain and Obama in New Mexico is telling, especially in light of the potential for a third party spoiler on the left in my home state: the poll shows McCain and Obama tied 44-44.  Some significant details: McCain picks up 25% of Democrats, Obama gets only 15% of […]

Rasmussen’s results for a general election match-up between McCain and Obama in New Mexico is telling, especially in light of the potential for a third party spoiler on the left in my home state: the poll shows McCain and Obama tied 44-44.  Some significant details: McCain picks up 25% of Democrats, Obama gets only 15% of Republicans; McCain wins married voters by 10 points, and loses among the unmarried by over 30; Obama has an unfav rating of 41%, which is roughly twice that of his national average which is conistent with his national Rasmussen unfav rating (44%) and three points higher than McCain’s.  McCain is a comparatively well-known political figure, but apparently slightly more voters already view Obama negatively in an important swing state. 

Married voters tend to vote at significantly higher rates than divorced, widowed or never married voters.  In 2004, married voters voted at a rate of 71% compared to 62% widowed, 58% divorced and 52% never-married.  Now it may be that Obama is generating enough enthusiasm, especially among the young and never-married, that his candidacy reduces the difference between these rates, but I wouldn’t want to have to bet on that.  McCain also wins among the two oldest age groups, taking the 65+ group by 25 points.  Voters aged 55+ likewise vote at much higher rates than voters aged 18-34, where much of Obama’s strength comes from. 

Not to be too superstitious about this, but New Mexico has a good record of voting for the winner (every time since statehood except 1976 and 2000) and Obama is struggling to lead there right now.  It is not hard to imagine his unfav ratings going up over the next eight months of campaigning.  New Mexico is plurality Hispanic, which may have a distorting effect on these numbers, but whatever the reason for it Obama is not currently leading in a state that has a built-in Democratic party ID advantage of over fifteen points and which has been trending more strongly Democratic on a state and local level.  According to Rasmussen, New Mexico technically leans Democratic at the moment, but this suggests that this does not translate into a polling advantage for Obama.  The sobering reality for Democrats is that Clinton does even more poorly in this poll in a state that her husband carried twice.  The flip side of the “Obama will probably lose” argument is not, it seems, that Clinton can probably win.

P.S. It seems to me that it would make a lot more sense to describe N.M. as a toss-up and Nevada as a Democratic-leaning state in an Obama-McCain match-up, if Rasmussen’s Nevada polling is accurate.  This doesn’t change the Electoral College numbers, since the two states have the same number of electoral votes, but it would seem to be more accurate.  Likewise, Colorado seems to be leaning more Democratic, while Iowa, like Wisconsin, appears to be more of a toss-up.  Normally, I would agree that the fundamentals make Ohio a Democratic-leaning state, but for all that Obama manages only 42% at present to McCain’s 41%.  So, to sum up, four of the five states Rasmussen has determined to be Democratic-leaning seem to be much more competitive, while two of the “toss-up” states appear to be Democratic-leaning.  That provisionally puts 14 electoral votes in the Dem column, but removes 42.

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