With early exits indicating an Obama thrashing of Clinton up north, it may be time to start thinking about the Obama v. McCain match-up in greater detail.  In the first installment, New Hampshire.

It makes perfect sense that Obama is trouncing McCain in early New Hampshire polling.  Not only has New Hampshire been trending Democratic for several years now, but all those independents who likely rallied to McCain when the media made it seem as if Obama was going to win in a walk have gone back to the Democrats.  But strength in New Hampshire won’t necessarily tell us who the stronger national candidate is.  In the last two cycles, the New Hampshire winner received fewer popular votes nationwide.  If my guess about Obama’s general election weakness against McCain is right, that could happen again.  As I’ve said before, there are certain battleground states (particularly New Mexico, Florida) where McCain should win handily, and New Mexico has historically been a reliable indicator of the national result.