I’ll agree with Weigel that Romney will win today with 37%. Paul will finish a reasonably close second at 26%, and Huntsman will take third with 20% Santorum’s 10% will leave him at fifth behind Gingrich, who will receive about 10.5% Roemer and Perry will be in a close contest for sixth, and Roemer will prevail. Of course, my Iowa predictions were all wrong, so take these for what little they’re worth.

If these were the results, what would the reaction likely be? At 37%, Romney’s result would be identical to McCain’s in 2008, but it would represent a slight drop from where his polling had been in recent months, which would open Romney to the criticism that he underperformed in a state where he should have been an overwhelming victor. Then again, Romney would be the first Republican candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contest without an incumbent President.

Jonathan Bernstein raised an interesting question the other day about possible Republican backlash against New Hampshire if Romney, Paul and Huntsman took too large of a share of the vote:

The third and perhaps biggest thing at this point to watch for: do the Republicans have a New Hampshire problem? If Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Ron Paul combine to take 80% or more of the vote, will conservatives seek to reform the nominating process by attempting to punish that state? The biggest complaint about Iowa and New Hampshire as the kick-off states in recent cycles has come from Democrats who object to the lack of ethnic diversity in those states, but a far greater problem could be that on the GOP side, moderates are overrepresented.

I suppose there could be a backlash, but what would Republicans be objecting to here? Romney and Huntsman may not be the favorites of many activists, but their policy proposals are roughly in line with what self-identified conservatives say they want, and Huntsman’s disagreements with the prevailing views inside the party are hardly any worse than McCain’s. Moderates are overrepresented, but they mostly end up voting for a movement conservative-friendly policy agenda. If the results are anything like what I predicted, Romney and Huntsman (the McCain wannabe) will receive significantly less support overall than Romney and McCain did four years ago. Most Republicans are unlikely to punish New Hampshire just because Paul has a strong second-place showing. It is more likely that they will treat Huntsman as the “real” runner-up because they will simply dismiss Paul’s result, and then they will treat whoever takes fourth place as a viable contender.