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My Certitudes Are Doing Quite Well, Thanks For Asking

The blithe assertion by many on the Right that Giuliani is not a viable candidate in the teeth of all available evidence showing him either to be the frontrunner or a co-frontrunner for the nomination has not been a sign of intellectual or political health. It is a form of wishful thinking to disregard the […]

The blithe assertion by many on the Right that Giuliani is not a viable candidate in the teeth of all available evidence showing him either to be the frontrunner or a co-frontrunner for the nomination has not been a sign of intellectual or political health.

It is a form of wishful thinking to disregard the genuine excitement and enthusiasm surrounding Giuliani across the country and deep into the Republican party’s roots simply because Giuliani’s views don’t conform with a kind of social-conservative checklist. It’s true that you wouldn’t expect someone with his views on social issues to be doing so spectacularly well. But he is, and a fact like that has to force serious students of present-day Republican politics to revisit their certitudes. ~John Podhoretz

From some of that “available evidence,” here are some fun Gallup results from last month (via Evangelicals for Mitt):

According to a Jan. 5-7, 2007 USA Today/Gallup poll, three-quarters [bold mine-DL] of Republicans nationwide (including independents who lean to the Republican Party) are unsure whether Giuliani favors or opposes civil unions for same-sex couples (he favors them, though he opposes gay marriage). Nearly two-thirds [bold mine-DL] are unsure whether he is “pro-life” or “pro-choice” on abortion (he was staunchly pro-choice as mayor).

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The same January poll asked Republicans who they would prefer to see win if the Republican nomination narrows down to just Giuliani and McCain. Given this choice, 50% prefer Giuliani while 42% choose McCain. Notably, Giuliani does particularly well with self-described conservative Republicans (52% for Giuliani vs. 39% for McCain), while “moderate” Republicans prefer McCain (52% vs. 43%).

However, when Republicans are told in the context of the survey that Giuliani supports same-sex civil unions and holds a pro-choice position on abortion, the net effect on their expressed chances of backing him is negative. Knowing his social views, more than 4 in 10 Republicans indicate a reduced willingness to support Giuliani. Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him, and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely.

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The theoretical impact of Giuliani’s social views on Republican voter preferences is better seen by looking at the results to this question according to Giuliani’s own supporters. Of those favoring Giuliani in the two-way match with McCain, a little over one-third say they would either rule out voting for Giuliani entirely (10%) or be less likely to support him (25%) as a result of knowing his positions on abortion and same-sex civil unions.

No comments from me on what these results mean for the political or intellectual health of early Giuliani boosters.  Of course, the contest won’t be just a two-way Giuliani-McCain grudge match, which makes Giuliani’s loss of potential supporters because of these social issues pretty damaging, since he is losing supporters from the self-described conservatives in the poll who will be inclined to gravitate to a different anti-McCain candidate. 

My favourite result from that poll is the 16% who think Giuliani is pro-life.  Hello!  I sometimes forget that the gap in political knowledge between the average voter and the political junkie is stunningly vast, but then polls such as this one remind me that just because everyone in the chattering/typing classes knows something about a candidate means absolutely nothing about the rest of the country.  (Obama’s cocaine use, like Rudy’s adventures in transvestiture, is probably not widely known.)  For the political junkie, Giuliani’s pro-choice, gay pride parade-marching drag queen days are old news.  Surely, everyone has already taken that into account and they are supporting Giuliani in every early poll because they value his crime-fighting abilities and his tax-cutting zeal!  Conservatives are very complex people with complex motives!  Well, actually, no, not in this case.  Many people support him because they recognise his name and project their own views onto the political blank slate that he represents.  I suspect that the 16% who believe in the mythical pro-life Giuliani are not going to be happy when they discover that he never was what they thought he was.

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