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Lord Lawson on Climate Change

There are, for example, climate scientists who believe that the principal cause has been land-use changes, in particular urbanisation (the so-called urban heat island effect) and to some extent forest clearance for farming. But much more important is the fact that the Earth’s climate has always been subject to natural variation, nothing to do with […]

There are, for example, climate scientists who believe that the principal cause has been land-use changes, in particular urbanisation (the so-called urban heat island effect) and to some extent forest clearance for farming. But much more important is the fact that the Earth’s climate has always been subject to natural variation, nothing to do with man’s activities. Again, climate scientists differ about the causes of this, although most agree that variations in solar radiation play a key part.

It is well established, for example, that a thousand years ago, well before industrialisation, there was what has become known as the mediaeval warm period, when temperatures were probably almost as high as, if not higher than, they are today. Going back even further, during the Roman empire, it was even warmer — so much so that the Romans were able to produce drinkable wine in the north of England. More recently, during the 17th and early 18th centuries, there was what has become known as the little ice age, when the Thames was regularly frozen over in winter, and substantial ice fairs held on the frozen river became a popular attraction.

Even during the period since 1860, for which we have accurate temperature records, the picture is complicated. While the amount of man-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has, since the industrial revolution, steadily increased, the corresponding temperature record is more cyclical, displaying four distinct phases.

Between 1860 and 1915 there was virtually no change in northern hemisphere temperatures. Between 1915 and 1945 there was a rise of about 0.4oC. Between 1945 and 1965 the temperature fell by about 0.2oC — and alarmist articles by Professor James Lovelock and others began to appear, warning about the prospect of a new ice age. Finally, between 1965 and 2000 there was a further increase of about 0.4oC, thus arriving at the overall increase of 0.6oC over the 20th century as a whole. Although, so far this century, there has been nothing to match the high temperature recorded in 1998, it would be rash to assume that this latest upward phase has ended. ~Lord Nigel Lawson, The Spectator (registration required)

The whole of Lord Lawson’s article makes for very good reading on the realities of climate change, as opposed the usual hysteria surrounding the subject, and the need for a sober assessment of the causes and consequences of climate change. I wholly share his skeptical view when it comes to man-made causes of climate change, and I wholly approve of his balanced treatment of the possible boons and dangers that gradual (and it is surely gradual) climate change bring.

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