Despite the optimistic public spin on the Libya campaign put out by the western allies, the fact that the “internal exile” option is being considered is, I think, a telling sign of anxiety. ~Gideon Rachman

The Transitional National Council (TNC) has floated the possibility of internal exile before, which prompted this pointed response from Spencer Ackerman:

Luckily, Gaddafi would never dream of using his exile to organize an insurgency against his successors. Even luckier, he would never find active or passive receptivity to such an insurgency when post-Gaddafi governance inevitably falters and the rebel front, held together only by opposition to Gaddafi, fractures. Best yet, it will find no attractive rallying cry for its cause in the presence of NATO peacekeepers. It’s a really great thing we got involved in this war, since nothing can go wrong.

Speaking of the Transitional National Council, it is worth noting that recognizing it as the Libyan government ignores a few other small problems:

But the problem is that it is only barely in control of the war; it clearly does not represent the full expanse of Libyan opposition; and it is very unlikely to remain a major political body after the war.

For all of the talk of the TNC being treated as the “legitimate governing authority,” it remains the case that its main source of legitimacy comes from outside the country. From the same Globe and Mail report:

“They are much more adept at building legitimacy among European governments than they are at building legitimacy among the Libyan people,” said a European diplomat who works with the council.

It isn’t simply that the TNC lacks the ability to exercise meaningful control in the areas nominally under its authority, but that the people in anti-Gaddafi areas outside Benghazi do not regard it as representing their interests:

Beyond this, there is the larger question of just how much of anti-Gadhafi Libya the NTC actually represents. That became clear this week during an interview with Mohammed Musa El-Maghrabi, who represents the rebel fighters of the war-torn city of Brega in the NTC.

“While obviously we feel that the NTC is better than Gadhafi rule, they are only representing Benghazi – we do not have any sense of them representing Brega,” Mr. El-Maghraba said before meeting NTC leaders Thursday. “To us, it looks like the NTC is a foreign government, full of nepotism and corruption. This worries us. Do we want to have a Gadhafi dictatorship replaced with a Benghazi dictatorship?”

Brega may be an unusual case. Nevertheless, Mr. El-Maghrabi’s outburst does raise an eyebrow: If the NTC is unable to create a sense of legitimacy among the people of Brega, two hours down the road, then how on earth will it ever win the respect of Tripoli?

Despite some recent successes against Gaddafi’s forces, the military situation has not changed very much. C.J. Chivers has continued his reporting from the western mountains:

On a broader level, the blue-tipped rocket — along with many other signs, including a shortage of rifles and machine guns in most of the fighting groups — was an indicator that expectations of a swift rebel advance out of the mountains toward Tripoli are unrealistic, barring a collapse from within of the Qaddafi forces blocking the way. The rebel military leadership has admitted this much, too. A force equipped as they are, they say, cannot expect to undertake an arduous open-desert march against a dug-in, conventional foe with armor, artillery, rockets, and more.

As Tony Karon wrote last week, this is why NATO governments are paying more attention to a political solution that they previously dismissed:

But while the rebels have recently been making a better fight of it, there’s still plenty of resilience in the regime’s forces, and little sign that the rebels are capable of overrunning the capital. Hence the growing talk of a political solution, particularly with a slowdown expected in the ground war with the onset of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan a little under three weeks from now.

The Telegraph‘s report over the weekend detailed the proposals now being considered by Western governments:

That is why, for all the talk of pressing on, more credence is also being attached than formerly to the negotiating powers of the African Union, to proposals like Turkey’s, and to the skills of Abdul Elah al-Khatib, the UN envoy who is now the outside world’s “sole intermediary” with the regime.

Even the Turkish “Ramadan ceasefire” proposal is being considered, one western diplomat said, while another admits that the idea of Col Gaddafi staying in Libya, once as much an anathema to the allies as to the rebels, is not an “red line”.

It may all seem rather shabby. It may all in fact be moot – after putting out feelers to the West in past weeks, Col Gaddafi himself is now promising, once again, to “fight on to the end”.

But unless an effort is made at least to try for peace, the alliance fears an already troubled campaign will not only stall, but implode in acrimony and humiliation.