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Leadership Changes

Brendan Nyhan writes: Despite the election results, it looks like House Republicans are going to shift their leadership in a conservative direction [italics in original]. Nyhan says this almost as if he cannot believe it is true, but it was unavoidable and also, from a Republican perspective, desirable. Let’s remember that the current House Republican […]

Brendan Nyhan writes:

Despite the election results, it looks like House Republicans are going to shift their leadership in a conservative direction [italics in original].

Nyhan says this almost as if he cannot believe it is true, but it was unavoidable and also, from a Republican perspective, desirable. Let’s remember that the current House Republican leadership was in place for almost the last three years and presided over two of the largest consecutive electoral defeats in modern times. Their most notable achievements in the last two years were to tie the GOP even more tightly to an unpopular war and a failed administration, and to capitulate to the administration during the bailout debate. (It’s worth noting that Ryan also went along with this.) They were bound to be replaced, and even more conservative members were all but certain to replace them.

For one thing, conservatives are practically all that the GOP has left in the House. During the last two elections, most moderate House Republicans were defeated either by primary challenges or in the general election, and any remaining moderate members would not be able to command support from most of the conference. In the wake of the disasters of the Bush era and McCain’s defeat, even if there were members to fill the slots, it is inconceivable that Republicans would decide that now was the time for choosing a moderate Republican leadership. This change in leadership, assuming Lungren’s challenge to Boehner is successful, might be comparable in certain respects to the selection of Pelosi as Democratic minority leader after the ’02 defeat and Gephardt’s resignation. No doubt there were those saying incredulously at the time, “Despite the election results, the Democrats are shifting their leadership in a liberal direction.” As it turned out, Pelosi proved to be a reasonably effective minority leader and kept the House Democrats in a position to capitalize on administration mistakes and win the majority in ’06. There is no guarantee that a new House GOP leadership would be able to make such a comeback, and there seems to be little evidence of creative thinking or preparation that would make a speedy recovery possible, but Pelosi’s example suggests that political skill and winning the loyalty of your members are more important than where one falls on the political spectrum. It’s also worth remembering that Pelosi became leader eight years after the Democrats lost the majority, which may mean a long time in the minority for the GOP, but there is nothing inherently or obviously wrongheaded in choosing more right-leaning leaders in the center-right party.

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