With all the appropriate caveats in mind (i.e., this poll does not predict what will happen, the election is far away, many things can change, and so on), here is some information from the latest Rasmussen Michigan poll. McCain leads both Clinton and Obama by three points. Only 65% of liberals express support for Obama with 19% going for McCain and 11% for ”some other candidate.” McCain has a weak hold on conservative voters (74%), but holds on to more of them than Obama does with liberals. Obama trails narrowly among independents and gets just 67% of Democrats. 7% of Republicans support him, while 17% of Democrats back McCain. There are slightly fewer “Obamacans” than Republicans who would opt for Clinton over McCain (13%). That is not what is supposed to be happening.
My generation must be pretty cynical, because they seem to react very negatively to Obama all over the country. His unfav rating among voters 18-29 is 56%, which is by far the highest unfav of any age group. He trails McCain among the 18-29 group by 23 points (33-56), but he managed to remain competitive or tie in every other age group. This age group rallies to Clinton more than any other even though she has an unfav rating over 50% with this group: she still gets 54% of the 18-29 group to McCain’s 41%. The story we keep hearing about the enthusiasm for Obama among the young does not reflect the attitudes of a majority of young voters. The generational trend towards the Democrats that we have been hearing about is apparently real enough, but it seems to collapse when Obama is the candidate.