Giuliani has an almost impossibly high bar to cross, according to Ross:

At this point I’d go further: No matter who wins Iowa, Huck or Romney, Rudy needs to finish ahead of Mitt in New Hampshire [bold mine-DL] â€“ either by coming in second to McCain or winning outright – or else he’s going to drop completely off the map before Florida rolls around.

Rudy also needs a new personality, but neither that nor this favourable outcome is going to be forthcoming.  There were two approaches to the front-loaded primary system: it was either going to magnify the importance of the early states immeasurably, or it was going to make the early states irrelevant.  Right now it appears as if the first view was correct.  Giuliani’s campaign, indeed the entire rationale of his candidacy, relied on the second being right.  It is still too early to say for sure, but if this marks the beginning of the end for Giuliani it will come as a relief for millions of conservatives who really never wanted to have to accommodate such a nominee.