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Have Republicans Fixed Their Senate Election Problem?

The party's tendency to underperform in Senate races hasn't been entirely corrected.

Ross Douthat identifies one area where he thinks the GOP has fixed some of its electoral problems:

Keep in mind that Republicans in 2014 have not merely been trying to outdo Mitt Romney’s (or John McCain’s) presidential effort; they’ve also been trying to outdo their own not-especially-impressive Senate efforts from 2010 and 2012, in which bad candidates and weak messaging and poor turnout operations handed a number of winnable seats to the Democrats. It’s not just the case, in other words, that the G.O.P. has had a losing presidential-level coalition in the Obama era; it’s also had a losing Senate strategy, one that has arguably been a bigger black mark on the party’s efforts than Romney’s failed campaign.

I’d say that is mostly true. There are no winnable seats that the GOP has simply thrown away this year by nominating ridiculous and/or unelectable candidates. There is no one running in a competitive state comparable to an Akin or O’Donnell. However, on closer inspection the party’s tendency to underperform in Senate races hasn’t been entirely corrected. For example, take the elections in South Dakota and Kansas. Yes, Rounds is still on track to win in South Dakota, but that is largely thanks to a three-way split in the vote that has saved him. Most voters in South Dakota will likely be voting for someone other than the Republican candidate. This points to an odd weakness for the GOP in the plains states that cropped up two years ago. The scandal that was dragging Rounds down in the last few weeks would probably have cost Republicans a safe seat in a two-way contest.

Meanwhile Roberts’ weakness and his possible defeat at the hands of Orman tonight reflect the problems of the Kansas GOP as a whole. It is only because Orman is likely to caucus with whichever party already has the majority that Republicans aren’t at serious risk of losing a seat in a state that has almost exclusively elected Republicans to the Senate since statehood. As Republican candidates in other close races have pulled ahead of their opponents in Iowa and Colorado, the races in Kansas and South Dakota have receded from view and no longer offer Democrats the hope of a last-minute reprieve, but if the GOP had fixed its problem with Senate races their outcomes should never have been in doubt. If by some chance the Democrats pull off unexpected wins in, say, Alaska and Louisiana, then the inability to nail down the seat in Kansas could have major consequences for the bid to take over the Senate. I am assuming that it won’t come to that, but it should be a reminder of how close the party came to falling short of winning a majority in a year when everything is working in their favor.

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