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GOP On The Ropes In The Land Of Douglas

The poll found 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while a little more than a quarter of the voters identified themselves as Republicans. The 17 percentage point difference ranks among the most polarized partisan spreads in more than 16 years of Tribune surveys taken prior to an election day. The results of the […]

The poll found 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while a little more than a quarter of the voters identified themselves as Republicans. The 17 percentage point difference ranks among the most polarized partisan spreads in more than 16 years of Tribune surveys taken prior to an election day.

The results of the poll echo surveys taken nationally that show an increase in voters lining up in the Democratic column, a factor attributed to dissatisfaction with the Republican White House and GOP-led Congress on issues ranging from the war in Iraq to economic uncertainties. ~The Chicago Tribune

If only 26% identify themselves as Republican, that spells serious trouble for candidates such as Pete Roskam, who faces a tough election battle against Tammy Duckworth, the Democrats’ anti-amnesty Iraq war veteran candidate in the 6th of Illinois, to replace retiring Henry Hyde.  The gap between people identifying with the two parties is probably largely a product of alienation from the state GOP, which has managed to be corrupt, badly organised and downright suicidal over the past few years (does the name Keyes ring any bells?), but this cannot be helped by national anti-GOP trends. 

Their nomination of Judy Baar Topinka (now I ask you, does that sound like the name of a winning candidate?), who currently trails incumbent Gov. Rod Blagojevich by double digits, and the state party’s overwhelming hostility against the one notably conservative candidate in the primary, Jim Oberweis, both confirm the impression that the state party here has no idea what it is doing.  The woes of the national GOP add more problems to Roskam’s campaign, and complicate the efforts of McSweeney to get the 8th (northern Illinois–parts of McHenry, Lake and Cook Cos.) back from the upset victor of 2004, Michelle Bean (who, ironically, tends to vote with the GOP on most national security and trade issues anyway).  For the GOP to hold the House, Bean has to go down in defeat (right now, hers is the only Democratic-held seat that currently leans to the Republicans), and many observers expect this, but with these party ID numbers I am not so sure it will happen.  Even granting that a significant portion of the 26% self-identifying Republicans live in the 8th, and even noting that Bean faces a progressive challenger on the war (one who hopes, in true insurgent fashion, to take Bean down even if it means having an equally undesirable Republican elected), this is far from an obvious pickup for the GOP.  If they are struggling in suburban DuPage County, it would not be a surprise if they are also going to struggle in this northern Illinois district.

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