A well-connected Republican source who was running through the most competitive House races this morning said, “If we lose Heather Wilson, we lose the House.”  The explanation was that Wilson has faced tough reelection races in the past and so knows what she’s up against.  She’s aggressive, knows how to fight for her seat, and raises plenty of money.  The reasoning is that if she is knocked off this year, there is little hope for incumbents facing their first real challenge. At the end of September, polls had Wilson tied with New Mexico’s attorney general Patricia Madrid.  Recent polls give Madrid an edge of about 8 points. ~Kate O’Beirne

Back on 5 May, I wrote the following on the NM-01 race and the reasons why Wilson might lose:

What Sager misses is that Heather Wilson’s vote “against a GOP immigration crackdown bill” may very well be putting her out of sympathy with voters in a state where our Democratic governor, never one to miss a political opportunity, has declared a state of emergency along the border. She had already lost my vote with the war, along with both of my parents’ votes, and I’ll wager she is not doing herself any favours by playing the “moderate” this year. If she works hard enough, she may get to Patricia Madrid’s left on immigration and lose the election.

What Sager also does not tell you, perhaps because he does not know, is that no incumbent Republican has ever lost NM-1 since the seat was created, and no Democrat has ever won that district. Madrid seems poised to make the strongest challenge of any to date, and if she succeeds by tapping into resentment against the local Bush loyalist Heather Wilson will lose her seat for embracing he mi casa es su casa view (it really isn’t fair to this very pleasant phrase of old-fashioned hospitality to associate it with subversion of the law and sovereignty of the U.S., since a hospitable invitation presupposes that the guest will at some point return to his own home).

I believe there are two factors making this election competitive like none before it has been: the war and immigration. And Wilson is swimming against the tide on both, while Madrid seems to be catching the political mood a little bit better. Immigration may be working against the GOP in the border states, but not because the Republicans are taking a hard line on the problem; it is the perception of drift and complete failure to do anything that I think will be killing the GOP in the Southwest.

While we’re recalling the reasons for Heather’s impending likely failure, don’t forget Heather’s fun with anti-price-gouging legislation!  And last month I described NM-01 as a bellwether for the national mood:

New Mexicans, including this New Mexican, want her gone and they are just waiting for a sign that Madrid is not completely incompetent.  We are still waiting.  But look for Wilson’s numbers to be a good indicator of the overall trends this year.

In my reckless predictions, which now appear relatively tame and reasonable, I wrote:

The House will flip, as there are definitely 14 Republican-held seats that are already leaning the other way, and the flip will be made possible by the late rally of Michelle Bean in Illinois’ 8th, and will be secured by Heather Wilson’s late collapse in New Mexico’s 1st and the possible damage done to the GOP candidate in Ohio’s 18th by Ney’s refusal to resign (and, possibly even more damaging because it would be rather chaotic, the need for a special election to replace Ney if he does resign).  Wilson continues to poll well below 50% in a district that has always gone to the GOP from the time of Manuel Lujan through the Schiff years until today.  Wilson does always benefit from a sizeable absentee vote that gave her a comfortable margin two years ago, but this time I don’t think the late surge can save her this time.

Finally, in one last self-congratulatory citation, I remarked on Heather’s likely downfall earlier this month:

We are likely to see a number of these close races shift more in the Dems’ favour as the past few days’ revelations spread and sink in throughout the country.  Watch Heather Wilson to be one of the candidates to sink in coming weeks.

If the House goes Democratic, the nation will either be thanking or cursing the people of Albuquerque and myself.  Note to the GOP: this did not have to happen.  The party decided to pursue the course that is bringing them their repudiation.  From the very first Heather Wilson’s “moderate” politics were pushed on the Republicans of Albuquerque when Domenici openly interfered in the special election to replace the deceased Steve Schiff to the advantage of Wilson.  Conservatives, who supported Wilson’s opponent, Bill Davis, were very angry at the heavy-handed favouritism doled out to Domenici’s hand-picked candidate.  But for a time Wilson started out more or less on the right foot.  My litmus tests were impeachment and Kosovo, and Wilson was on the right side of both.  But once Mr. Bush arrived in Washington it was all downhill from there.  I didn’t much care for her vote for the Patriot Act, but obviously Iraq, the prescription drug bill and her weakness on border enforcement all confirmed me in my opposition to her.  In the process, Heather has also lost the support of members of my family and, it seems, quite a few other people.  Her tangential connection to Mark Foley through some donations he gave her campaign and her presence on the House Page Board until 2004, while not in themselves particularly damning (it seems that she left the Board before anything was made known to that group), certainly didn’t help her already poor reputation with conservatives.