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Gingrich and the “Cuban Spring”

The editors at Democracy Arsenal object to the GOP hawks’ rhetoric on Cuba: If Gingrich believes we can look 90 miles south “to have a Cuban Spring” he has failed all duties of being a historian or a scholar. Not to worry. He failed in those duties long ago. Gingrich’s framing of his “Cuban spring” […]

The editors at Democracy Arsenal object to the GOP hawks’ rhetoric on Cuba:

If Gingrich believes we can look 90 miles south “to have a Cuban Spring” he has failed all duties of being a historian or a scholar.

Not to worry. He failed in those duties long ago. Gingrich’s framing of his “Cuban spring” remarks last night was also a bit unusual. He started off by saying this:

I find it fascinating that Obama is intrigued with Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, but doesn’t quite notice Cuba.

Yes, that’s fascinating, isn’t it? When there are mass protests calling for the end of communist party rule and Castro dictatorship, I suspect that any administration would become similarly “intrigued” by Cuba. The odd thing about this attack line is that it had been the standard Republican democratist charge that Obama didn’t care about political change in Arab countries until the change was already happening. This has been overexaggerated, but it contained the kernel of truth that Obama wasn’t going to push democracy promotion as much (or as counter-productively and stupidly) as Bush did. Now that this attack is no longer quite so relevant, Gingrich says that Obama is “intrigued” by upheaval in Arab countries, but he is supposedly oblivious to Cuba. One might ask what there is in Cuba for Obama to notice that he has overlooked.

Turning to the policy question, I agree that the embargo isn’t doing Cubans any favors. The pro-embargo supporters’ pretense that they are “on the side” of ordinary Cubans is just as maddening as the claim that supporters of Iran sanctions want to help the Iranian people. As for the Burma comparison, there is something to the argument that time-limited sanctions can create incentives for internal reform, but imagine how much better off, wealthier, and more effective the Burmese middle class and political opposition would have been if Western governments hadn’t been trying to sanction the junta into submission for the last twenty years. Current Burmese moves towards reform are encouraging, but even in the absence of these moves it would make sense to lift sanctions on Burma that have worked to strangle their economy.

There is nothing for the U.S. to lose by dropping the antiquated Cuba embargo. On the other hand, ending the embargo offers a chance to create a significant economic relationship with Cubans that will redound to the benefit of the population. Whether that leads to political change or not, it seems undeniable that this is a better policy for the U.S. and for the people of Cuba.

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