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Fiscal Responsibility Is Vitally Important and Politically Toxic

If an election in which there is a groundswell of anger against government spending and debt isn’t a good time to take a stand on entitlements, when is a good time? ~Philip Klein This is one of the reasons that the “Pledge” has disappointed and frustrated so many conservatives: they honestly believe that there is […]

If an election in which there is a groundswell of anger against government spending and debt isn’t a good time to take a stand on entitlements, when is a good time? ~Philip Klein

This is one of the reasons that the “Pledge” has disappointed and frustrated so many conservatives: they honestly believe that there is a groundswell of anger against government spending and debt. That has made things very easy for their thinking about this election. It has been the best of both worlds: Republicans could return to power by being principled, debt-reducing fiscal conservatives! This bit of self-deception complemented the equally fantastical notion that Republicans lost power in 2006 because they were insufficiently principled fiscal conservatives. Just as most conservatives still seem to have no idea how their preferred party was ousted, they do not understand why that party might win this time. Worthless as they may be in many other respects, Republican leaders do understand that keeping elderly voters happy has been the principal cause of the revival of their fortunes, and they aren’t about to jeopardize that so that they can immolate themselves as part of a quest to reduce entitlement spending. Take away their Medicare demagoguery during the health care debate and put them on the other side of the argument as Medicare-slashing villains of Democratic imagination, and the election would be entirely different. This is why Democratic leaders have been so eager to tie anyone they can to Paul Ryan’s “roadmap” and why so many Republicans have been fleeing from it en masse.

If there were a truly large groundswell of anger against spending and debt, it would make a lot of political sense for Republican candidates to propose significant changes to entitlement programs. Since most dissatisfaction with the current majority does not come from anger against government spending and debt, it makes much more political sense for Republicans to continue their cynical pretense of being zealous defenders of Medicare and Social Security. There are probably few worse times to push entitlement reform than during a weak economic recovery with high unemployment. The public is mainly angry about these things, and the thought that politicians might be meddling with entitlements at a time like this would simply make many Americans even angrier.

Recently, Andrew Sullivan has been urging Obama to make fiscal responsibility the central theme of the midterm elections. On the face of it, this makes sense. Some of the proposals in the “Pledge” are fiscally disastrous, and pointing this out exposes the GOP as fiscally irresponsible. Actual fiscal conservatives find defenses of fiscal responsibility appealing, and so it is tempting to conclude that other voters would respond in the same way. For the same reason that conservatives are wrong about the “groundswell,” it would be a mistake for Obama to stake out a position of stern fiscal prudence as the alternative. That is, it would be a mistake if winning the election is the priority. The Republicans have a chance at winning because they have no intention of reining in spending in a meaningful way and they have just told everyone that they have no such intention, because they know that this is not what most voters want.

Obviously, fiscal responsibility is wise, necessary and important. Debt reduction is of vital importance, and it is a disaster for the United States that neither major party really has any intention of taking the problem seriously. Being fiscally responsible when it is actually wildly unpopular would be the appropriate, adult thing to do.

That is why it is almost certainly political poison. Republicans are trying to compete by mouthing fiscal conservative slogans and endorsing fiscal madness on substance, because they correctly assume that Americans like the rhetoric of fiscal responsibility and generally don’t favor the substance. They want to claim that they are on the side of “the people,” but in order to do the right thing for the country they would have be firmly against what most of the people want.

It remains to be seen whether the coalition government in Britain will be punished for its austerity measures, but it is very likely that any administration or majority that seriously pursued an austerity budget would be run out on a rail at the next possible opportunity. Republicans have a chance of winning a narrow majority because they have made sure to protect themselves from the accusation that they are fiscally responsible. Announcing to the world the truth that they are fiscally irresponsible takes away the one thing that might keep some voters from voting Republican. For that reason, Republican leaders have to be delighted that their “Pledge” has become a significant part of the pre-election conversation. The more that newspapers and pundits editorialize against it as reckless flim-flammery, the more votes Republicans will get.

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