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Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Domestic Politics and the G-8 “Snub”

Nikolas Gvosdev agrees that domestic factors account for Putin’s G-8 “snub”: The problem with this assessment, however, is that both sides are underestimating the importance of domestic politics as driving factors for why Putin and Obama choose to do certain things. Russia may not have the developed party system found in most Western democracies, but […]

Nikolas Gvosdev agrees that domestic factors account for Putin’s G-8 “snub”:

The problem with this assessment, however, is that both sides are underestimating the importance of domestic politics as driving factors for why Putin and Obama choose to do certain things. Russia may not have the developed party system found in most Western democracies, but Putin is not an all-powerful autocrat. Navigating the different factions in the Russian political system has proven far more difficult than expected in terms of nominating new ministers and their deputies, as well as determining who will serve in the staffs of both the president and the prime minister. And unlike in 2008, when the transition took place amid strong popular support for Putin, he must now deal with the cracks in the Russian political system that emerged in the wake of popular protests against both the 2011 Duma elections and his own return to the presidency.

The funny thing about this is that critics of U.S. Russia policy are only too happy to exaggerate the significance of Putin’s domestic political problems represented by the protests. At other times, when he effectively admits that he is running into some difficulties at home, these critics insist on not believing it and choose to interpret it as an insult to the United States. Gvosdev’s assessment makes more sense: “This puts Putin’s decision not to come to the U.S. in a different light, reflecting a desire to focus on getting the domestic politics right before wading out into the treacherous waters of international affairs.” Explaining Obama’s decision not to go to Vladivostok for the APEC summit during the week of the Democratic National Convention is even easier. It would be unusual for a modern incumbent president to miss all of his party’s convention in his own bid for re-election. It would also be a long way to go to attend only part of the summit in Russia. The convention is being held September 3-6, and APEC is meeting September 2-9, so the timing could hardly be worse.

Gvosdev concludes:

Make no mistake, there are some real shoals that must be navigated if the U.S.-Russia relationship is to sustain the positive accomplishments of the past several years. But a better appreciation of the domestic challenges both leaders face may help to avoid unnecessary misunderstandings as Putin and Obama, and their respective staffs, attempt to interpret each other’s behavior.

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