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Bellwether Blues

Even granting all the usual caveats about how early it is and how much can change and understanding that the Democratic primary fight is dragging down their candidate’s numbers, the new SUSA polling in several states has to be pretty sobering for Obama backers.  McCain ties Obama in Massachusetts right now, leads in Missouri by fourteen, leads […]

Even granting all the usual caveats about how early it is and how much can change and understanding that the Democratic primary fight is dragging down their candidate’s numbers, the new SUSA polling in several states has to be pretty sobering for Obama backers.  McCain ties Obama in Massachusetts right now, leads in Missouri by fourteen, leads in Ohio by seven, and is effectively tied in Minnesota and trails by just four in Wisconsin.  Oh, yes, and McCain leads in Kentucky by a measly 36 (for some perspective, Kerry lost Kentucky badly, but “only” by 20 points). 

If Missouri retains its traditional role as a bellwether and these numbers hold up (obviously two pretty large ifs), it’s going to be McCain in a walk.  Some of the most telling numbers from the Missouri crosstabs: just 62% of Democrats there back Obama and he gets just 35% of independents and 11% of Republicans.  McCain beats him in every region of the state except Kansas City, where it is essentially a tie at 47-46.  By comparison 83% of Democrats back Clinton, as do 37% of independents and just 5% of Republicans, which is why she runs just two behind McCain.  Once again, the youngest voters (18-34 year olds in this poll) are the most anti-Obama, backing McCain 59-35.  I have noticed another pattern from numerous polls: 50-64 year olds tend to support Obama more than the others, while 65+ tend to be among the most opposed.  Those who are about the same age as Obama tend to be pretty representative of the population as a whole in how they break for Obama on a state-by-state basis.  It seems that Boomers, who came of age in the ’60s and ’70s, are most susceptible to Obama’s appeal and his promise to move “beyond” the debates of the Boomer generation, while those of us who most desperately want to get beyond those debates tend not to support him.  Make of that what you will. 

Update: The Kentucky numbers are one way of gauging reaction to the Wright controversy: Obama has dropped 25 points in Kentucky since the start of March.  SUSA’s main page details Obama’s slide in a number of states.

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